We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 02 December 19
OPEC PREPS FOR OIL'S 2020 BALANCING ACT - WOOD MACKENZIE
 What steps should OPEC and its non-OPEC partners take to keep the market in balance in 2020? Ahead of OPEC’s meeting in Vienna on 5 and 6 December, I turned to Ann-Louise Hittle, Vice President Macro Oils, for answers.
What does good look like for OPEC in 2020? Given the uncertainty around global supply growth, demand and geopolitics, OPEC will do well to get an outcome like 2019. Brent will average U.S.$64 per barrel in 2019, down on last year’s U.S.$71, but still the second-highest annual price since 2014. It’s a measure of OPEC’s success so far in balancing what is a fundamentally an oversupplied market.
Will demand recover in 2020? We think so. This year has disappointed because of a series of one-off factors and the slowing global economy. The 0.6 million barrels per day (b/d) outcome will be well down on the 1.1 million b/d we forecast back in January 2019.
Sanctions-related demand destruction in Venezuela and Iran, plus warm weather in Europe shouldn’t feature next year. We think annual growth will double in 2020 to 1.4 million b/d. China will be key – we expect growth there to double to 0.6 million b/d, buoyed by strong demand for marine gasoil, as bunker volumes move in response to the new low-sulphur IMO regulations on shipping fuels.
Is global supply still growing rapidly? Yes, we expect an increase of 1.8 million b/d in 2020 –assuming OPEC+ maintains its current production cuts.
What’s changing is the mix, and for the first time in years, the U.S. Lower 48 won’t dominate as much. U.S. is about half the 2020 growth, with the rest coming from other non-OPEC producers including Guyana, Brazil and Norway. The giant Norwegian field, Johan Sverdrup, on stream since October, will add 0.3 million b/d in 2020.
So, U.S. tight oil is still growing? Yes, but at a much slower rate. We expect an increase of 0.5 million b/d, well below the 2018 annual peak of 1.5 million b/d. The rig count is down by 18%, or almost 200 rigs from the November 2018 high, across all tight oil plays. Monthly production growth year-on-year peaked at 1.8 million b/d in August 2018 and could slip to just 0.4 million b/d by end 2020.
Did we anticipate that? We expected 2018 to be the peak year of U.S. tight oil growth – but not the rate of slowdown we’re seeing unfold. Investors are forcing U.S. independents, which account for 80% of tight oil production, to pare back spend on growth and generate cash flow.
What growth there is by end 2020 will come mostly from the Majors (ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP and Shell) whose plans are unaffected by capital constraints.
There’s a certain irony that the free market, through shareholder influence, is succeeding in slowing growth – to OPEC’s advantage.
Time will tell how long it lasts – we think we’ll see tight oil growth recover in 2021 though not back to peak rates.
What about OPEC production? A lot of OPEC oil is off the market – volumes are 2.5 million b/d below a year ago. Around half of that is involuntary, due to U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan and Iranian exports. The other 1.2 million b/d are deliberate cuts by OPEC+. Admirable adherence by key producers in the OPEC+ group has been instrumental in balancing the market and holding Brent above U.S.$60 this year. Without cuts, prices would be much lower.
What does OPEC need to do in December? The current agreement on cuts expires in March 2020. OPEC+ needs to rollover through to the end of 2020. But with global supply growth outpacing demand in 2020, we’ll need further cuts if demand growth disappoints again. OPEC will have to move promptly, in this case, and take out additional production if it wants to support price.
Will fundamentals or geopolitics drive the market in 2020? A bit of both. Tension in the Middle East and U.S. global influence are risks again next year. U.S. foreign policy has been emboldened by the rise of tight oil in 2019, indirectly affecting export sanctions – on Venezuela and Iran – and the attack on the giant Abqaiq facility in Saudi Arabia in September.
None of the geopolitical challenges of 2019 has gone away. But we can see signs already that the U.S. is refocusing on domestic policy in the run-up to the presidential election next November.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 16 December 19
THE OUTLOOK FOR U.S. THERMAL COAL IS INCREASINGLY STRESSED - MOODY'S
- Slowing global economic growth, trade tensions will continue to exert influence
- Coal's secular decline will persist in 2020
...
Thursday, 12 December 19
KOWEPO INVITING BIDS FOR 2.28 MILLION TONS OF MIN.4,400 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an international tender for total 2,280,000 tons of (Sub) Bitum ...
Wednesday, 11 December 19
PANAMAX: THE MARKET REMAINED FIRM IN THE PACIFIC, WITH INCREASED ACTIVITY NOTED IN KEY AREAS, SUCH AS INDONESIA - ALLIED
Capesize – Positive momentum was resumed this past week, with earnings mak-ing some gains once again. This rising pattern was reflected in th ...
Tuesday, 10 December 19
PREPARATIONS INTENSIFY AS IMO 2020 GLOBAL SULPHUR CAP LOOMS - STANDARD CLUB
With less than a month to go for the impending IMO 2020 global sulphur cap, the club has started witnessing dispute cases relating to the measureme ...
Monday, 09 December 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO LTD IS INVITING OFFERS FOR MIN 3700 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd has issued an international tender for 160,000 Tons steam coal.
Acco ...
|
|
|
Showing 1246 to 1250 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
