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Wednesday, 27 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, one could say that the wet market has maintained the strong pace observed during the third quarter and will probably prove right those market specialists that predicted that tanker rates would be soaring coming into 2020 with the “IMO effect” ready to kick in.
The million dollar question is if this firm market recovery (both in asset prices as well as freight rates) is the beginning of a new cycle. What definitely helped boost earnings was the recent sanctions imposed by the USA to the Chinese Cosco tanker fleet that abruptly removed a significant amount of ships from the market and inevitably pushed the market to the recent highs. COSCO Dalian and its subsidiaries own 43 oil tankers, including 26 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) which consist over 3% of the VLCC fleet.
Despite the sanctions, the fundamental drive in this increase is still the coming IMO regulations that as many analysts predicted triggered an incremental move of cargoes from the desulphurization units towards major bunkering areas. Opportunities for profit were also created for traders finding market imbalances deriving from the shock of new regulations and the need to create a “new” mainstream fuel. It therefore seems that what we have been witnessing is not just a short lived spike but the start of the “IMO story”, which will be in full effect the first half of 2020.
On the Dry market, the BDI has been extremely volatile throughout the year, shifting sentiment several times as a result. The year kicked in with a steep decline amidst fears of the US-China trade talks, the Vale dam disaster and seasonal Chinese New Year celebrations declines.
Most feared 2019 could be a repeat of the lows observed back in 2016, while during Q1 we observed an SNP drought with only 103 bulk carriers changing hands. However, during the second quarter the market stabilized and increased steadily along with the feeling that the worst part of the year was already over and hopes for a rebound came along, with SNP transactions increasing to 137. The third quarter was overwhelming; freight rates increased rapidly and helped most companies return to the black, while more ships changed hands and transactions totaled 166. So when the last quarter begun, sentiment was firm and freights were high, while the majority of the industry was prepared for a very strong finish to the year.
To the surprise of most, the positive sentiment that prevailed during the past summer is currently questioned by the performance of the BDI and uncertainty over the new regulations has become a growing concern for dry bulk owners. Consequently, one would expect transactions to decline. However, SNP activity remained strong, with more than 85 transactions already confirmed half way into this quarter, while the majority of them was concluded to Greek owners, which itself constitutes a vote of confidence on an imminent rebound of the market sooner rather than later.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 08 March 19
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 2.6 MILLION TONS OF AUSTRALIAN 5700 NAR COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 MT of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origin to be burnt ...
Friday, 08 March 19
CHINA'S COAL DEMAND FORECAST TO DROP SLOWLY - YONHAP
China’s coal demand is expected to fall at a snail’s pace over the next 20 years due to the country’s preference for the cheap fo ...
Thursday, 07 March 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TO LOWEST IN SEVEN MONTHS
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 80,000 MT OF 3800 NCV COAL FOR 21 - 30 MARCH, 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 80,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calor ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITES BIDS FOR 980,000 MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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