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Wednesday, 27 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, one could say that the wet market has maintained the strong pace observed during the third quarter and will probably prove right those market specialists that predicted that tanker rates would be soaring coming into 2020 with the “IMO effect” ready to kick in.
The million dollar question is if this firm market recovery (both in asset prices as well as freight rates) is the beginning of a new cycle. What definitely helped boost earnings was the recent sanctions imposed by the USA to the Chinese Cosco tanker fleet that abruptly removed a significant amount of ships from the market and inevitably pushed the market to the recent highs. COSCO Dalian and its subsidiaries own 43 oil tankers, including 26 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) which consist over 3% of the VLCC fleet.
Despite the sanctions, the fundamental drive in this increase is still the coming IMO regulations that as many analysts predicted triggered an incremental move of cargoes from the desulphurization units towards major bunkering areas. Opportunities for profit were also created for traders finding market imbalances deriving from the shock of new regulations and the need to create a “new” mainstream fuel. It therefore seems that what we have been witnessing is not just a short lived spike but the start of the “IMO story”, which will be in full effect the first half of 2020.
On the Dry market, the BDI has been extremely volatile throughout the year, shifting sentiment several times as a result. The year kicked in with a steep decline amidst fears of the US-China trade talks, the Vale dam disaster and seasonal Chinese New Year celebrations declines.
Most feared 2019 could be a repeat of the lows observed back in 2016, while during Q1 we observed an SNP drought with only 103 bulk carriers changing hands. However, during the second quarter the market stabilized and increased steadily along with the feeling that the worst part of the year was already over and hopes for a rebound came along, with SNP transactions increasing to 137. The third quarter was overwhelming; freight rates increased rapidly and helped most companies return to the black, while more ships changed hands and transactions totaled 166. So when the last quarter begun, sentiment was firm and freights were high, while the majority of the industry was prepared for a very strong finish to the year.
To the surprise of most, the positive sentiment that prevailed during the past summer is currently questioned by the performance of the BDI and uncertainty over the new regulations has become a growing concern for dry bulk owners. Consequently, one would expect transactions to decline. However, SNP activity remained strong, with more than 85 transactions already confirmed half way into this quarter, while the majority of them was concluded to Greek owners, which itself constitutes a vote of confidence on an imminent rebound of the market sooner rather than later.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 23 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO VIETNAM AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The story over the past week has been largely Atlantic dominated as the basin’s uniquely volatile characteristics came into play ...
Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. ...
Friday, 21 June 19
INDONESIA'S BAYAN RESOURCES SIGNED A COAL SUPPLY AGREEMENT WITH THE BANGLADESH BCPCL TO SUPPLY 23 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR 10 YEARS
On Monday, 17th June 2019, PT. Bayan Resources signed a Coal supply Agreement with the Bangladesh- China Power Company (Pvt.) Limited. BCPCL is a j ...
Thursday, 20 June 19
BUMI RESOURCES EXPECTS TO SELL 42 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN FIRST HALF - JAKARTA POST
PT Bumi Resources (BUMI), Indonesia's largest thermal coal miner, expects to close the first half of this year with coal sales of 42 million to ...
Tuesday, 18 June 19
TANKER SHIPPING: WHILE WE WAIT FOR 2020 TO KICK IN, IT'S ALL ABOUT POLITICS - BIMCO
Demand drivers and freight rates
Iran, Libya and Venezuela face export limitations because of sanctions and internal political troubles. At the s ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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