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Wednesday, 27 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, one could say that the wet market has maintained the strong pace observed during the third quarter and will probably prove right those market specialists that predicted that tanker rates would be soaring coming into 2020 with the “IMO effect” ready to kick in.
The million dollar question is if this firm market recovery (both in asset prices as well as freight rates) is the beginning of a new cycle. What definitely helped boost earnings was the recent sanctions imposed by the USA to the Chinese Cosco tanker fleet that abruptly removed a significant amount of ships from the market and inevitably pushed the market to the recent highs. COSCO Dalian and its subsidiaries own 43 oil tankers, including 26 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) which consist over 3% of the VLCC fleet.
Despite the sanctions, the fundamental drive in this increase is still the coming IMO regulations that as many analysts predicted triggered an incremental move of cargoes from the desulphurization units towards major bunkering areas. Opportunities for profit were also created for traders finding market imbalances deriving from the shock of new regulations and the need to create a “new” mainstream fuel. It therefore seems that what we have been witnessing is not just a short lived spike but the start of the “IMO story”, which will be in full effect the first half of 2020.
On the Dry market, the BDI has been extremely volatile throughout the year, shifting sentiment several times as a result. The year kicked in with a steep decline amidst fears of the US-China trade talks, the Vale dam disaster and seasonal Chinese New Year celebrations declines.
Most feared 2019 could be a repeat of the lows observed back in 2016, while during Q1 we observed an SNP drought with only 103 bulk carriers changing hands. However, during the second quarter the market stabilized and increased steadily along with the feeling that the worst part of the year was already over and hopes for a rebound came along, with SNP transactions increasing to 137. The third quarter was overwhelming; freight rates increased rapidly and helped most companies return to the black, while more ships changed hands and transactions totaled 166. So when the last quarter begun, sentiment was firm and freights were high, while the majority of the industry was prepared for a very strong finish to the year.
To the surprise of most, the positive sentiment that prevailed during the past summer is currently questioned by the performance of the BDI and uncertainty over the new regulations has become a growing concern for dry bulk owners. Consequently, one would expect transactions to decline. However, SNP activity remained strong, with more than 85 transactions already confirmed half way into this quarter, while the majority of them was concluded to Greek owners, which itself constitutes a vote of confidence on an imminent rebound of the market sooner rather than later.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 09 January 20
SUPRAMAX: A NUMBER OF INDONESIAN ROUND TRIPS WERE REPORTED AT BELLOW USD 5,000 PD LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The Capesize market has hit new low's in the first week of the new year, with the West Australia route being fixed at USD 6.6 being ...
Wednesday, 08 January 20
WHAT IS BIMCO THINKING ABOUT 2020? - BIMCO
Every year, BIMCO considers what is in store for the shipping industry and for BIMCO in the coming years, while also reflecting on the year gone by ...
Wednesday, 08 January 20
VINACOMIN SETS TO SELL 49 MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 2020 - VIETNAM NET
The Vietnam National Coal-Mineral Industries Holding Corporation Limited (Vinacomin) has set to sell 49 million tonnes of coal in 2020, a year-on-y ...
Wednesday, 08 January 20
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE CUTS 18.95 MLN TONNES OF CAPACITY IN 2019 - XINHUA
North China’s Shanxi Province reduced its coal production capacity by 18.95 million tonnes by closing 18 coal mines in 2019.
A ...
Wednesday, 08 January 20
JANUARY INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIPS US$ 0.37 MOM
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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