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Wednesday, 27 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, one could say that the wet market has maintained the strong pace observed during the third quarter and will probably prove right those market specialists that predicted that tanker rates would be soaring coming into 2020 with the “IMO effect” ready to kick in.
The million dollar question is if this firm market recovery (both in asset prices as well as freight rates) is the beginning of a new cycle. What definitely helped boost earnings was the recent sanctions imposed by the USA to the Chinese Cosco tanker fleet that abruptly removed a significant amount of ships from the market and inevitably pushed the market to the recent highs. COSCO Dalian and its subsidiaries own 43 oil tankers, including 26 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) which consist over 3% of the VLCC fleet.
Despite the sanctions, the fundamental drive in this increase is still the coming IMO regulations that as many analysts predicted triggered an incremental move of cargoes from the desulphurization units towards major bunkering areas. Opportunities for profit were also created for traders finding market imbalances deriving from the shock of new regulations and the need to create a “new” mainstream fuel. It therefore seems that what we have been witnessing is not just a short lived spike but the start of the “IMO story”, which will be in full effect the first half of 2020.
On the Dry market, the BDI has been extremely volatile throughout the year, shifting sentiment several times as a result. The year kicked in with a steep decline amidst fears of the US-China trade talks, the Vale dam disaster and seasonal Chinese New Year celebrations declines.
Most feared 2019 could be a repeat of the lows observed back in 2016, while during Q1 we observed an SNP drought with only 103 bulk carriers changing hands. However, during the second quarter the market stabilized and increased steadily along with the feeling that the worst part of the year was already over and hopes for a rebound came along, with SNP transactions increasing to 137. The third quarter was overwhelming; freight rates increased rapidly and helped most companies return to the black, while more ships changed hands and transactions totaled 166. So when the last quarter begun, sentiment was firm and freights were high, while the majority of the industry was prepared for a very strong finish to the year.
To the surprise of most, the positive sentiment that prevailed during the past summer is currently questioned by the performance of the BDI and uncertainty over the new regulations has become a growing concern for dry bulk owners. Consequently, one would expect transactions to decline. However, SNP activity remained strong, with more than 85 transactions already confirmed half way into this quarter, while the majority of them was concluded to Greek owners, which itself constitutes a vote of confidence on an imminent rebound of the market sooner rather than later.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 21 January 20
ASIA'S APPETITE FOR COAL GROWS, WITH CHINA THE KEY DECIDER - NIKKEI
Although renewable power generation is expected to rise significantly in Asia, India’s vast electricity needs will still underpin global dema ...
Tuesday, 21 January 20
THERMAL COAL PRICES SET FOR RECOVERY THIS YEAR AS OVERSUPPLY TIGHTENS - REUTERS
Thermal coal prices are expected to recover this year after losing around a third of their value last year as demand from some south-east Asian cou ...
Monday, 20 January 20
INDIA TO STOP SUBSTITUTABLE COAL IMPORT; CAN GO FOR AUCTION OF 100 FULLY EXPLORED NEW BLOCKS: JOSHI - PTI
The Cabinet recently approved promulgation of Mineral Laws (Amendment) Ordinance 2020 to amend Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation ) Act ...
Monday, 20 January 20
CHINA DECEMBER COAL OUTPUT UP 2.4 PERCENT ON YEAR - STATS BUREAU: REUTERS
China produced 331.74 million tonnes of coal in December, up 2.4 percent on the year, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday.
...
Monday, 20 January 20
CHINA IMPORTED 124.4 MLN TONNES OF COAL FROM INDONESIA IN 2019, UP 15.1 PERCENT YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
China's coal imports raced ahead in 2019, surprising many who had expected that in the months of 2019 to come the government would clamp down s ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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