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Wednesday, 27 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, one could say that the wet market has maintained the strong pace observed during the third quarter and will probably prove right those market specialists that predicted that tanker rates would be soaring coming into 2020 with the “IMO effect” ready to kick in.
The million dollar question is if this firm market recovery (both in asset prices as well as freight rates) is the beginning of a new cycle. What definitely helped boost earnings was the recent sanctions imposed by the USA to the Chinese Cosco tanker fleet that abruptly removed a significant amount of ships from the market and inevitably pushed the market to the recent highs. COSCO Dalian and its subsidiaries own 43 oil tankers, including 26 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) which consist over 3% of the VLCC fleet.
Despite the sanctions, the fundamental drive in this increase is still the coming IMO regulations that as many analysts predicted triggered an incremental move of cargoes from the desulphurization units towards major bunkering areas. Opportunities for profit were also created for traders finding market imbalances deriving from the shock of new regulations and the need to create a “new” mainstream fuel. It therefore seems that what we have been witnessing is not just a short lived spike but the start of the “IMO story”, which will be in full effect the first half of 2020.
On the Dry market, the BDI has been extremely volatile throughout the year, shifting sentiment several times as a result. The year kicked in with a steep decline amidst fears of the US-China trade talks, the Vale dam disaster and seasonal Chinese New Year celebrations declines.
Most feared 2019 could be a repeat of the lows observed back in 2016, while during Q1 we observed an SNP drought with only 103 bulk carriers changing hands. However, during the second quarter the market stabilized and increased steadily along with the feeling that the worst part of the year was already over and hopes for a rebound came along, with SNP transactions increasing to 137. The third quarter was overwhelming; freight rates increased rapidly and helped most companies return to the black, while more ships changed hands and transactions totaled 166. So when the last quarter begun, sentiment was firm and freights were high, while the majority of the industry was prepared for a very strong finish to the year.
To the surprise of most, the positive sentiment that prevailed during the past summer is currently questioned by the performance of the BDI and uncertainty over the new regulations has become a growing concern for dry bulk owners. Consequently, one would expect transactions to decline. However, SNP activity remained strong, with more than 85 transactions already confirmed half way into this quarter, while the majority of them was concluded to Greek owners, which itself constitutes a vote of confidence on an imminent rebound of the market sooner rather than later.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 19 February 20
MINERS WELCOME INDONESIA'S NEW JOBS BILL THAT COULD SPUR COAL GROWTH - REUTERS
Miners have welcomed proposed changes to Indonesian mining rules under a new law aimed at boosting investment, though critics are concerned that th ...
Wednesday, 19 February 20
AS OCEAN TEMPERATURES RISE, SHIPOWNERS LOOK FOR WAYS TO COPE - WARTSILA
The world is heating up, and its oceans are no exception. According to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the oceans absorb the majo ...
Wednesday, 19 February 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The coronavirus outbreak is estimated to negatively affect global economy by at least EUR400bn this year, representing around the 0.4% of global GD ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
ADARO SHIPPED 27 PERCENT OF ITS TOTAL COAL PRODUCTION IN 2019 TO INDIA AND CHINA
PT Adaro Energy Tbk (AE) produced 58.03 Mt of coal from PT Adaro Indonesia (AI), Balangan Coal Companies and Adaro Me ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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