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Wednesday, 20 November 19
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS IN COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN INDIA? - DIPESH DIPU
 In August 2019, Government of India announced its approval for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) for coal mining, processing and sale. Not that FDI in coal mining sector was new, but novelty in that was that government now permitted foreign ownership of coal mines for commercial sale of coal produced from such mines. He justifications provided by government sources included need for competition in a sector that has been traditionally dominated by government-owned companies Coal India Limited and Singareni Collieries Company Limited; need for enhanced production as here has been shortfall in meeting demand; and, need for newer technologies that may bring in sustainability to coal mining. These indeed are commendable objectives and opening up the sector for foreign participation may certainly be considered a step in the right direction. However, public policy needs to be grounded in realism, and the reality of attractiveness of commercial coal mining in India does not bode well for foreign participation.
The response of government-owned companies for coal blocks on offer for allotment for commercial coal mining was announced in early August 2019 provides the evidence. Nine coal blocks were put on offer for sale of coal in markets and the eligibility for these were restricted to government-owned companies including the state government-owned ones. There were, however, only three coal blocks[1] that received applications by NMDC Limited, Jharkhand State Mineral Development Corporation and Madhya Pradesh State Mining Corporation. This lukewarm response may indicate towards the market sentiments for commercial coal mining in India. It must also be considered here that the coal blocks for allotment for government-owned companies do not have the two-stage auction based bidding for winning the blocks and, thus, the pay-out required to win these coal blocks may be lower in comparison to coal blocks put out for auctions. So, even with lower additional pay-out to government in the form of premium the coal blocks have not found many takers. There may be several underlying economic reasons, which are amplified for foreign participants, and thus, require consideration to evaluate if this approval for FDI in commercial coal mining would have any impact and if it would meet its stated objectives.
The first and the foremost is the economic feasibility of these mines. The foreign, and indeed any private company, would have to participate in auction process for winning a coal block, and commit to a competitive premium to access the resources. This has been an impediment for private sector participation in India, given the evidence of coal blocks awarded for captive consumption in power and non-regulated sectors that include cement, steel and other approved end users. There seems to be some sanity dawning on participants on these auction with every successive rounds of auction, seen from the lower winning premiums, and hence, it may be expected that the trend may continue. Nonetheless, the premium will certainly erode the margins for commercial miners, the extent of this erosion would be a function of degree of competition for the coal blocks. The margins are also likely to be uncertain in view of the price volatility of coal, which in Indian market is pegged with CIL price and a certain premium that reflects typically the discount that IL prices tend to have over energy-equivalent international prices. This uncertainty of prices is likely to be confounded by the uncertainty in demand-supply gap that these commercial miners are required to fulfil. There has been a shortfall in supply in the recent past, evident from the rise in coal imports in the last two years even with the stated objective of the government to reduce coal imports. This may present itself as an opportunity. However, the question is whether this shortfall is likely to sustain, and thus, create a marketplace for commercial miners. With a slump in thermal power generation and nearly absent pipeline of new coal based projects, this assumption may be quite a big one to make and decide in favour of making foreign direct investment in Indian coal mining.
Other important risks pertain to project execution. There have been several impediments in coal mining project implementations, such as procurement of licenses and permits, acquisition of land and rehabilitation and resettlement of project affected people. These, apart from the procedural challenges, involve risk of reputation. Business practices on all these accounts in mining sector have often been marred with controversies and have led to perceptions of externalities in these processes having significant influence on the outcomes. Foreign participants in Indian mining have been wary of these, and hence, have had little success to show even though they have had offices and a few exploration and contract mining projects in India. Apart from reputation, the risks in procurement of licenses and land acquisition create the risks of project delays, which may then translate into cost escalations, thereby impacting project economics. Coal mining projects may have such challenges in attracting foreign direct investment.
There are challenges of talent shortage and financing as well. Innovative technologies that the foreign miners are likely to bring in India will require high quality geo-statisticians, geologists, mine planners and mining engineers. India does produce graduates in these areas of study but quantities do no necessarily reflect quality, which are further compounded by the brain drain of talent into other industries, primarily, information technology. Mining industry in general, and coal mining in particular, has not been able to retain relent in the last decade or so, with advent of opportunities for the smart geoscientists and engineers in alternate industries. Foreign mining companies may find this crippling.
There are challenges in financing too. Coal mining projects may have been good candidates for resource-based financing, but that has not happened on account of several factors, not the least of those being dominance of government-owned companies priding themselves on debt-free balance sheets, and the quality of geological information that may be inferior to global standards. The market for debt for coal mining then often reduces itself to equipment financing with the equipment being securitised to the lenders. Globally preferred model of equipment leasing is still in its relatively early stages of comprehension and acceptance in Indian mining. With limited options of raising finances, the higher degree of equity investments may also be a deterrent for foreign investors as the may have comparable projects competing for scarce capital.
Coal mining industry has been on a downward spiral globally. Foreign large miners have divested or are divesting their stakes in coal projects. Global bankers have committed themselves to not financing coal and coal based power projects. Insurance companies are shying away from coal projects too. The ecosystem for coal mining project execution is dying. Epitaphs are being written on coal and its demise is predicted by governments, investors and policy analysts wold over. But for the coal addiction of Asia, China and India in particular, the demise may have been sooner. Under such gloomy outlook for the industry, with coal mining companies filing for bankruptcies frequently, it would be tough to get these foreign companies to look at Indian destinations favourably. An industry staring at terminal decline may not witness new investors, and old ones that may have been facing severe challenges in their home countries to look out for opportunities in India.
Optimism at this point of time of foreign miners participating in Indian coal mining sector, that presents a challenging business environment, may be misplaced. Only when the government calls for applications for coal blocks for sale of coal with permitted participation for foreign direct investment that the final picture shall emerge.
By Dipesh Dipu
Energy, Natural Resources and Infrastructure Expert
This article originaly published on economictimes and Linkedin
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Wednesday, 31 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
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ULTRAMAX - INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES SAW A 63,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY FOR A SOUTH CHINA TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $11,700 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market was a white knuckled ride this past week as a large downside movement shed value quickly leaving many in bewilderment. The ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.27 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 138.78 points Monday, down 0.27 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tonnes of ink has been spent analysing the rebound of the dry bulk market the last weeks with the most representative example being the rising perf ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
COAL'S DEMISE QUICKENS IN EUROPE AS MARKET SHIFT IDLES PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Commodity markets are stripping away the case for coal in Europe, moving quicker than government efforts to close the most polluting power plants.
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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- The University of Queensland
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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