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Wednesday, 06 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With less than two months before the end of the year, the shipping and refining industries have already taken measures and invested to accommodate the IMO 2020 regulations. As the implementation date for the 0.5% sulphur cap approaches, the U.S. EIA expects that the swing in petroleum product pricing will be most acute in 2020 and the effects on prices will be moderate after that. However, the regulations will inevitably affect petroleum supply, demand, and trade flows on a long-term basis while shipowners, operators and charterers around the world are carefully preparing marine fuel supplies ahead.
As already extensively analysed operators of vessels have a few options, from switching to a lower-sulphur fuel or installing scrubbers to even switching to nonpetroleum-based fuels, such as liquefied natural gas (LNG). To enable a prosperous transition the industry demands increased on-board operational expertise and detailed product knowledge both on the supplying and the receiving vessel. Originally MGO was declared the primary winner since most of the bunker products did not met the sulphur content limit of 0.5%. However, with less than two months ahead of the implementation, it seems that the scale of the MGO demand swipe will not be as great as expected. In its place, very-low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) has been developed as a dark horse to challenge MGO as a stand-in for high-sulfur fuel oil, with a 3.5% sulfur limit, when the switch is activated.
VLSFO is already available in various locations across Asia, Middle East, Africa and the Americas as of mid-October, while it will be made available to additional ports during November and December. Even though demand up until recently has not been as high we are now seeing both supply and demand rapidly increasing. During the first half of October, supply of VLSFO surpassed demand in many areas and as argued by suppliers, this is because ship-owners that initially wanted to start bunkering VLSFO postponed their purchases for November and December. The market disturbance caused by the transition to IMO 2020 is apparent as the supply side of HSFO has begun running down stocks. Furthermore, tank barges that have been stowing HSFO are being taken out of service to be cleaned and get readied for VLSFO or MGO. Concurrently, suppliers and traders are reluctant to substitute HSFO stocks as they anticipate rapidly declining demand towards the end of 2019. This reduced supply capacity comes at a time when shipping still needs fuel, and the vast majority of bunker demand is still for HSFO.
To conclude, the transition to the 0.50% sulphur limit will cause disruption and more volatility than usual for a while but the market will eventually adapt as it always does. Worldwide, the shipping industry was primarily sceptical about the quality of VLSFO, but as 2020 approaches confidence for VLSFO grows among market members. Operators are projected to lean towards the lower cost option that will replace the 3.6 million barrels per day of HSFO that the shipping industry currently consumes. There is still speculation rather than solid fact about the price differential between high sulphur fuel and VLSFO price in the beginning of 2020, with some analysts predicting a potential range of $40-$200 between the two grades.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 04 November 19
PANAMAX: WEAKER SENTIMENTS CONTINUED FROM LAST WEEK, WITH RATES FURTHER SOFTENING IN BOTH BASINS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market meandered slightly upwards this week before giving back much of its gains mid-week. Opening the week at $24,945, t ...
Thursday, 31 October 19
U.S. COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS SCHEDULED TO SHUT - REUTERS
U.S. power companies expect to retire or convert from coal to gas over 13,800 megawatts (MW) of coal-fired plants in 2019 after shutting over 13,30 ...
Thursday, 31 October 19
SE ASIA MAY BECOME NET FOSSIL FUEL IMPORTER IN COMING YEARS - IEA
Southeast Asia is set to become a key driver of world energy trends over the next 20 years as its energy demand grows at twice the global average, ...
Monday, 28 October 19
ULTRAMAX: ASIA RATES REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE WITH THE NORTH LACKING FRESH ENQUIRY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The end of the week brought about a small increase in sentiment heading into a long weekend for some regions. After sustaining a drop ...
Thursday, 24 October 19
AUSTRALIA'S HOPES TO EXPAND COAL EXPORTS IN SOUTH-EAST ASIA 'DELUSIONAL', EXPERTS SAY - THE GUARDIAN
The number of new coal-fired power plants starting construction across south-east Asia has fallen markedly over the past two years as Australia has ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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