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Wednesday, 06 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With less than two months before the end of the year, the shipping and refining industries have already taken measures and invested to accommodate the IMO 2020 regulations. As the implementation date for the 0.5% sulphur cap approaches, the U.S. EIA expects that the swing in petroleum product pricing will be most acute in 2020 and the effects on prices will be moderate after that. However, the regulations will inevitably affect petroleum supply, demand, and trade flows on a long-term basis while shipowners, operators and charterers around the world are carefully preparing marine fuel supplies ahead.
As already extensively analysed operators of vessels have a few options, from switching to a lower-sulphur fuel or installing scrubbers to even switching to nonpetroleum-based fuels, such as liquefied natural gas (LNG). To enable a prosperous transition the industry demands increased on-board operational expertise and detailed product knowledge both on the supplying and the receiving vessel. Originally MGO was declared the primary winner since most of the bunker products did not met the sulphur content limit of 0.5%. However, with less than two months ahead of the implementation, it seems that the scale of the MGO demand swipe will not be as great as expected. In its place, very-low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) has been developed as a dark horse to challenge MGO as a stand-in for high-sulfur fuel oil, with a 3.5% sulfur limit, when the switch is activated.
VLSFO is already available in various locations across Asia, Middle East, Africa and the Americas as of mid-October, while it will be made available to additional ports during November and December. Even though demand up until recently has not been as high we are now seeing both supply and demand rapidly increasing. During the first half of October, supply of VLSFO surpassed demand in many areas and as argued by suppliers, this is because ship-owners that initially wanted to start bunkering VLSFO postponed their purchases for November and December. The market disturbance caused by the transition to IMO 2020 is apparent as the supply side of HSFO has begun running down stocks. Furthermore, tank barges that have been stowing HSFO are being taken out of service to be cleaned and get readied for VLSFO or MGO. Concurrently, suppliers and traders are reluctant to substitute HSFO stocks as they anticipate rapidly declining demand towards the end of 2019. This reduced supply capacity comes at a time when shipping still needs fuel, and the vast majority of bunker demand is still for HSFO.
To conclude, the transition to the 0.50% sulphur limit will cause disruption and more volatility than usual for a while but the market will eventually adapt as it always does. Worldwide, the shipping industry was primarily sceptical about the quality of VLSFO, but as 2020 approaches confidence for VLSFO grows among market members. Operators are projected to lean towards the lower cost option that will replace the 3.6 million barrels per day of HSFO that the shipping industry currently consumes. There is still speculation rather than solid fact about the price differential between high sulphur fuel and VLSFO price in the beginning of 2020, with some analysts predicting a potential range of $40-$200 between the two grades.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 20 November 19
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS IN COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN INDIA? - DIPESH DIPU
In August 2019, Government of India announced its approval for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) for coal mining, processing and sale. Not that FDI i ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
AUSTRALIA'S NEW HOPE POSTS 66% SURGE IN Q1 SALEABLE COAL OUTPUT - REUTERS
Australian coal producer New Hope Corp Ltd reported on Tuesday a 66% jump in saleable coal production in the first quarter, as output ramped up at ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
THE IMO AND THE PRICE OF GAS OR THE IMPACT OF THE INTERNATIONAL MARITIME ORGANISATION'S SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT FOR MARINE FUEL OIL ON THE PRICE OF GAS - KING & SPALDING
The main bunker fuel for ships is High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO, with sulphur up to 3.5% m/m (mass by mass)). This will all change on 1 January 2020 ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, wh ...
Monday, 18 November 19
CHINA RECORDS STABLE COAL PRODUCTION IN JAN-OCT: XINHUA
China’s raw coal output registered stable growth in the first 10 months, while its imports remained robust, official data showed.
...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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