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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Sunday, 22 December 19
NMDC DIVERSIFIES INTO COAL MINING - THE HINDU
Iron ore mining major NMDC has been allocated two coal blocks in Jharkhand for commercial mining by the Union Ministry of Coal.
Both ...
Sunday, 22 December 19
TRADING PLACES FOR 2020 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
In the sea of 2020 predictions, Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions sail their own very unique course. For nearly 20 years the Danish investme ...
Saturday, 21 December 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000 DWT VESSEL, OPEN CIGADING, FIXED A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week has been attempting to recalibrate itself in consideration of weakening freight levels and increasi ...
Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling t ...
Friday, 20 December 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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