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Thursday, 03 October 19
OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS UNCHANGED, NBP GAS PRICE LOWERED - FITCH RATINGS PRIMARY - FITCH RATINGS
 Our oil price assumptions are unchanged, despite the recent price volatility following the attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, Fitch Ratings says. We have revised down the National Balancing Point (NBP) gas price assumptions as we now anticipate a slower recovery in European natural gas prices due to a supply glut in the LNG market and slower economic growth prospects globally.
Oil prices spiked in the aftermath of the attacks in Saudi Arabia, but have since subsided. According to media reports, Saudi Aramco has made progress in restoring production, although we assume full recovery of capacity to levels available pre-attack could take time. We believe that disruptions ultimately will have a limited impact on the supply-demand balance this year, especially as the market remains otherwise well-supplied. We have kept our price deck assumption for Brent at USD65/bbl for 2019, though we expect volatility to remain significant in 4Q19, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
The attack highlighted the vulnerability of oil-producing infrastructure, not only in Saudi Arabia, but also elsewhere in the Middle East, although it has not caused us to change our fundamental view on the sector. An escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region, such as further attacks or a military conflict, could lead to higher prices, at least temporarily, due to the effect on the physical market or a 'geopolitical premium'.
Fitch Ratings further noted that, Fitch Ratings still assumes an average Brent price to be marginally lower at USD62.5/bbl in 2020 compared to 2019, due to waning demand and increased supply from continued US shale growth and recovered production in Saudi Arabia. However, we also expect OPEC+ to manage supply to avoid large surpluses or deficits. In 2020, the coming into force of International Maritime Organization Sulphur 2020 regulation could support demand for Brent and WTI, which are low-sulphur oil grades. The long-term price of USD57.5/bbl for Brent takes into account our view on the marginal costs of oil production.
Fitch Ratings lowered their NBP prices for 2019-2021. European spot natural gas prices collapsed in 1Q19. Increased supply from new LNG plants in the US and elsewhere was not matched by sufficient demand growth. In 9M19 the NBP price averaged USD4.7/mcf, compared with USD8.1/mcf in 9M18. Furthermore, the daily closing price has fluctuated between USD2.4 and USD3.9/mcf since the beginning of August. Prices are likely to rise in 4Q19 when the heating season starts. However, we expect the recovery to be slow given unusually high volumes of gas accumulated in European underground storage facilities and slowing demand.
According to latest report, Fitch Ratings believes that re-balancing in the gas market may take longer than we had anticipated primarily due to lower Chinese growth. China was the major driver for LNG demand and accounted for 48% of global demand growth over the past five years (2014-2018), followed by Europe (19%) and India (12%), according to BP. However, Chinese LNG demand may wane because of slowing economic growth amid the US-China trade war. China's authorities expect its annual gas consumption growth to decelerate to 10% yoy in 2019 from 17.5% in 2018.
According Fitch Ratings recent repot, the Fitch Ratings's long-term view on NBP is unchanged. While more active LNG trade is likely to result in narrower differentials between various hubs, we believe the USD3.75/mcf spread between Henry Hub and NBP we currently assume in the long-term assumptions is reasonable and accounts for full-cycle costs of delivering natural gas from the US to Europe.
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Wednesday, 31 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It was a fairly busy week in the dry S&P market. Despite the ease of Capesize rates which impacted Panamaxes as well, interest from potential b ...
Sunday, 28 July 19
ULTRAMAX - INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES SAW A 63,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY FOR A SOUTH CHINA TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $11,700 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market was a white knuckled ride this past week as a large downside movement shed value quickly leaving many in bewilderment. The ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.27 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 138.78 points Monday, down 0.27 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tonnes of ink has been spent analysing the rebound of the dry bulk market the last weeks with the most representative example being the rising perf ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
COAL'S DEMISE QUICKENS IN EUROPE AS MARKET SHIFT IDLES PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Commodity markets are stripping away the case for coal in Europe, moving quicker than government efforts to close the most polluting power plants.
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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