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Thursday, 03 October 19
OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS UNCHANGED, NBP GAS PRICE LOWERED - FITCH RATINGS PRIMARY - FITCH RATINGS
 Our oil price assumptions are unchanged, despite the recent price volatility following the attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, Fitch Ratings says. We have revised down the National Balancing Point (NBP) gas price assumptions as we now anticipate a slower recovery in European natural gas prices due to a supply glut in the LNG market and slower economic growth prospects globally.
Oil prices spiked in the aftermath of the attacks in Saudi Arabia, but have since subsided. According to media reports, Saudi Aramco has made progress in restoring production, although we assume full recovery of capacity to levels available pre-attack could take time. We believe that disruptions ultimately will have a limited impact on the supply-demand balance this year, especially as the market remains otherwise well-supplied. We have kept our price deck assumption for Brent at USD65/bbl for 2019, though we expect volatility to remain significant in 4Q19, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
The attack highlighted the vulnerability of oil-producing infrastructure, not only in Saudi Arabia, but also elsewhere in the Middle East, although it has not caused us to change our fundamental view on the sector. An escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region, such as further attacks or a military conflict, could lead to higher prices, at least temporarily, due to the effect on the physical market or a 'geopolitical premium'.
Fitch Ratings further noted that, Fitch Ratings still assumes an average Brent price to be marginally lower at USD62.5/bbl in 2020 compared to 2019, due to waning demand and increased supply from continued US shale growth and recovered production in Saudi Arabia. However, we also expect OPEC+ to manage supply to avoid large surpluses or deficits. In 2020, the coming into force of International Maritime Organization Sulphur 2020 regulation could support demand for Brent and WTI, which are low-sulphur oil grades. The long-term price of USD57.5/bbl for Brent takes into account our view on the marginal costs of oil production.
Fitch Ratings lowered their NBP prices for 2019-2021. European spot natural gas prices collapsed in 1Q19. Increased supply from new LNG plants in the US and elsewhere was not matched by sufficient demand growth. In 9M19 the NBP price averaged USD4.7/mcf, compared with USD8.1/mcf in 9M18. Furthermore, the daily closing price has fluctuated between USD2.4 and USD3.9/mcf since the beginning of August. Prices are likely to rise in 4Q19 when the heating season starts. However, we expect the recovery to be slow given unusually high volumes of gas accumulated in European underground storage facilities and slowing demand.
According to latest report, Fitch Ratings believes that re-balancing in the gas market may take longer than we had anticipated primarily due to lower Chinese growth. China was the major driver for LNG demand and accounted for 48% of global demand growth over the past five years (2014-2018), followed by Europe (19%) and India (12%), according to BP. However, Chinese LNG demand may wane because of slowing economic growth amid the US-China trade war. China's authorities expect its annual gas consumption growth to decelerate to 10% yoy in 2019 from 17.5% in 2018.
According Fitch Ratings recent repot, the Fitch Ratings's long-term view on NBP is unchanged. While more active LNG trade is likely to result in narrower differentials between various hubs, we believe the USD3.75/mcf spread between Henry Hub and NBP we currently assume in the long-term assumptions is reasonable and accounts for full-cycle costs of delivering natural gas from the US to Europe.
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Monday, 21 October 19
SHIPPERS CHANGE COURSE AS FUEL RULES TARGET SULPHUR EMISSIONS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The International Maritime Organization (IMO), the industry’s regulator, will require all ships to reduce the level of sulphur in their engin ...
Monday, 21 October 19
COAL TO PLAY SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN SOUTH AFRICA POWER MIX - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
South Africa’s plans for additional power generation over the next decade will involve a variety of energy sources, with coal still playing a ...
Monday, 21 October 19
ULTRAMAX: IN ASIA, TRIPS FROM THE SINGAPORE AREA WERE PAYING BETWEEN $14,000 AND $16,000, DEPENDING ON THE VESSEL SIZE AND DURATION - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market traded in a relatively stable supported manner in the Pacific this week while the Atlantic experienced weakening turbulence ...
Friday, 18 October 19
WHY CRUDE TANKER RATES JUST FELL (HALFWAY) BACK TO EARTH - FREIGHT WAVES
Panic drove crude-tanker rates up, very briefly, to mind-bogglingly high assessed levels of around $300,000 per day. Now, the fear factor has been ...
Friday, 18 October 19
SHORT TERM STRENGTH FOR OZ COMMODITIES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Volatility in the global commodity markets is not expected to unduly rattle Australia’s commodity outlook through 2020, but the 2021 picture ...
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Showing 1306 to 1310 news of total 6871 |
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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