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Thursday, 03 October 19
OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS UNCHANGED, NBP GAS PRICE LOWERED - FITCH RATINGS PRIMARY - FITCH RATINGS
 Our oil price assumptions are unchanged, despite the recent price volatility following the attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, Fitch Ratings says. We have revised down the National Balancing Point (NBP) gas price assumptions as we now anticipate a slower recovery in European natural gas prices due to a supply glut in the LNG market and slower economic growth prospects globally.
Oil prices spiked in the aftermath of the attacks in Saudi Arabia, but have since subsided. According to media reports, Saudi Aramco has made progress in restoring production, although we assume full recovery of capacity to levels available pre-attack could take time. We believe that disruptions ultimately will have a limited impact on the supply-demand balance this year, especially as the market remains otherwise well-supplied. We have kept our price deck assumption for Brent at USD65/bbl for 2019, though we expect volatility to remain significant in 4Q19, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
The attack highlighted the vulnerability of oil-producing infrastructure, not only in Saudi Arabia, but also elsewhere in the Middle East, although it has not caused us to change our fundamental view on the sector. An escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region, such as further attacks or a military conflict, could lead to higher prices, at least temporarily, due to the effect on the physical market or a 'geopolitical premium'.
Fitch Ratings further noted that, Fitch Ratings still assumes an average Brent price to be marginally lower at USD62.5/bbl in 2020 compared to 2019, due to waning demand and increased supply from continued US shale growth and recovered production in Saudi Arabia. However, we also expect OPEC+ to manage supply to avoid large surpluses or deficits. In 2020, the coming into force of International Maritime Organization Sulphur 2020 regulation could support demand for Brent and WTI, which are low-sulphur oil grades. The long-term price of USD57.5/bbl for Brent takes into account our view on the marginal costs of oil production.
Fitch Ratings lowered their NBP prices for 2019-2021. European spot natural gas prices collapsed in 1Q19. Increased supply from new LNG plants in the US and elsewhere was not matched by sufficient demand growth. In 9M19 the NBP price averaged USD4.7/mcf, compared with USD8.1/mcf in 9M18. Furthermore, the daily closing price has fluctuated between USD2.4 and USD3.9/mcf since the beginning of August. Prices are likely to rise in 4Q19 when the heating season starts. However, we expect the recovery to be slow given unusually high volumes of gas accumulated in European underground storage facilities and slowing demand.
According to latest report, Fitch Ratings believes that re-balancing in the gas market may take longer than we had anticipated primarily due to lower Chinese growth. China was the major driver for LNG demand and accounted for 48% of global demand growth over the past five years (2014-2018), followed by Europe (19%) and India (12%), according to BP. However, Chinese LNG demand may wane because of slowing economic growth amid the US-China trade war. China's authorities expect its annual gas consumption growth to decelerate to 10% yoy in 2019 from 17.5% in 2018.
According Fitch Ratings recent repot, the Fitch Ratings's long-term view on NBP is unchanged. While more active LNG trade is likely to result in narrower differentials between various hubs, we believe the USD3.75/mcf spread between Henry Hub and NBP we currently assume in the long-term assumptions is reasonable and accounts for full-cycle costs of delivering natural gas from the US to Europe.
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Wednesday, 13 November 19
INDONESIAN NOVEMBER COAL PRICE REFERENCE LOGS FIRST GAIN SINCE AUGUST
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Wednesday, 13 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The improvements seen in the dry bulk market during the unexpectedly strong Q3 brought enthusiasm and optimism for a last quarter rally. Indeed as ...
Tuesday, 12 November 19
COAL IMPORTS AT MAJOR PORTS SLIP 18 PC TO 51 MT IN APRIL-OCTOBER - ECONOMIC TIMES
The Indian Ports Association (IPA), which maintains cargo data handled by these 12 ports, in its recent report, said "percentage variation fro ...
Monday, 11 November 19
EMINENT MARITIME ORGANIZATIONS AND INDIVIDUALS WERE HONORED
SHIPTEK 2019 Anchors in Greece for its 12th edition.
Eminent Maritime Organizations and Individuals were honored
Greec ...
Wednesday, 06 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With less than two months before the end of the year, the shipping and refining industries have already taken measures and invested to accommodate ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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