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  • FOR 2020, FORECASTS HAVE GONE FROM A 12 MILLION TONS PRE-COVID DEFICIT TO A 56 MILLION TONS POST-COVID SURPLUS IN INTERNATIONAL STEAM COAL SUPPLY, MAINLY DUE TO LOWER IMPORTS IN CHINA AND INDIA - ASSOCARBONI
  • SEABORNE WORLD COAL TRADE CLOSED 2019 POSITIVELY WITH A 2% ANNUAL GROWTH AND CONFIRMING A GROWING TREND LEADING TO A 50% INCREASE IN VOLUMES IN 10 YEARS - ASSOCARBONI
  • EUROPE GENERATES ELECTRICITY MAINLY FROM COAL (18,2%) AND FROM NUCLEAR (25,5%), CUTTING THE COSTS OF ELECTRICITY BILLS BY AN AVERAGE 30% - ASSOCARBONI
  • COAL CONFIRMED ITS LEADERSHIP AS LEADING FUEL FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION ALSO IN 2019, ACCOUNTING FOR 38% OF OVERALL PRODUCTION AND CLOSING 2019 WITH A 2% INCREASE IN SEABORNE COAL TRADE (1.290 MILLION TONS) - ASSOCARBONI
  • VIETNAM, INDIA, CHINA AND PHILIPPINES ARE THE COUNTRIES THAT CONTRIBUTED THE MOST TO THE GROWTH IN COAL VOLUMES DURING 2019, ACHIEVING RECORD RESULTS IN TERMS OF IMPORT - ASSOCARBONI
  • FOR 2021 EXPECTED AN INCREASE IN SEABORNE COAL TRADE, DRIVEN BY IMPORTS OF NEW EMERGING ASIAN ECONOMIES INCLUDING PAKISTAN, BANGLADESH, PHILIPPINES, MALAYSIA AND VIETNAM - ASSOCARBONI
  • CONFIRMED THE GROWTH TREND THAT IN THE LAST TEN YEARS HAS LED TO A 50% INCREASE IN THE COAL MARKETED VOLUMES - ASSOCARBONI
  • AUGUST 2020 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR EXPORTS AND DOMESTIC BUYERS INCLUDING POWER PRODUCERS FIXED AT US$ 50.34 A TON

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Wednesday, 11 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
IntermodalWe are going through one of the rare instances where we see optimism building in the dry bulk industry and, as the momentum is still going, the belief that we will witness better rates in the industry.
 
Within a short period of two to three months, this momentum of healthy rates has intrigued many ship-owners to have a look at the possibility in purchasing a vessel. The uncertainty and mistrust of the market has not yet disappeared but it has shrunk compared to the previous months.
 
In the Capesize sector, we saw during the spring the total collapse of the market, where owners who wanted to sell were flirting with the idea of scrapping. Suddenly, within a few weeks the market reversed to healthy rates, with vessels being fixed in the spot market at around $37,000/day and values being around 20% up from the previous months. Thus, buying interest was focused on vessels that are five and ten years old. An example is the “NORD STEEL” (180,230dwt-blt ‘07, Japan), where more than five buyers inspected. In addition, after a few months, the vessels that were actually for sale could be counted on one hand for ages five up to fifteen years old.
 
In the Panamax sector, with the support from the chartering and from the continuous increase of the BDI, we saw increasing interest from many ship-owners for vessels that are around fifteen years old, that are considered by many as money makers. Moreover, on Panamaxes the SnP transaction of the “CLIPPER VICTORY” (77,119dwt-blt ‘15, Japan) is noteworthy, which was sold to a Greek owner, Eastern Mediterranean, for a price in the region of $21.0m. Usually, on these SnP transactions, it is typical to have interest for vessels with a deadweight in excess of 80,000 tonnes, however the price of the asset makes it a tempting deal.
 
In the Supramax sector after the sale of the “KESTREL I” (50,351dwt-blt ‘04, Japan), which was sold Taiwanese buyers for a price in the region of $7.3m, many buyers, including Greeks, have recently focused on purchasing vessels in excess of 50,000dwt up to 54,000dwt, built around 2000. The reason is that the value of these vessels has decreased and they are not willing to pay the premium for vessels over 56,000dwt. Lastly, In Supras that are around ten years old, there are plenty of available candidates for sale but buying interest is limited, as many believe that with these prices you cannot cover the investment.
 
Handies have not followed the upward trend of the freight market in recent months. Regarding values of the 28,000dwt vessels, they are still at low levels and it looks like they cannot tempt or attract Handy owners. The same can be identified with regards to the Chinese Handies from 32,000dwt up to 37,000dwt. In the Japanese Handies with capacities exceeding 32,000dwt, the market is more encouraging as after the sale of the “IKAN JERUNG” (31,760dwt-blt ‘09, Japan) we have witnessed a reluctant interest for vessels with three generators and following that, for vessels with two generators with the example of the “C. S. STAR” (33,000dwt-blt ‘11, Japan), which was sold to Greek buyers with a total of four inspecting the vessel.
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker

Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations


Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima

Mr.George Panagopoulos


Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.

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