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Wednesday, 04 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 For yet another time, the market seems to have its own drivers. After a very disappointing first half, the recent recovery in the shipping market in the second half of this year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most shipowners if they are optimistic you will get a “yes...but...” reply.
On the dry bulk ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the world fleet has increased by 241 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2,4%, while one year earlier it was below 2%. Nonetheless, it's still a moderate fleet increase versus 4.4% percent real GDP growth of the emerging market and developing economies. For example, Bangladesh has 7.3% GDP Growth in 2019 and has also secured the top position in the world in achieving the highest GDP during the last 10 years.
The current dry bulk orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.7% of the world fleet. Whilst there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2019, the orderbook is today merely bigger than what it was a year ago by about 50 vessels. Furthermore, we are amidst of environmental regulations coming into force, with water ballast management systems being retrofitted (or not) and the bunkers already transitioning to comply with the 2020 sulphur cap.
Compared to the same time last year we have about 80 more vessels over 20years old, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent 9,5% of the dry bulk fleet.
On the tanker segment, things aren't less complicated. So far in 2019 there is less demolition activity, but also less new orders, while more ships have been delivered from the builders. The tanker fleet (>25,000dwt) has increased by about 3.5% led by MR tankers which increased by about 70 vessels, VLCCs followed with 55 vessels, 37 Aframaxes and just 15 Suezmaxes. The orderbook has not been replenished and is actually about 25% smaller than before, it represents about 7.7% of the trading fleet down from 10% same time last year. This rationalization of the orderbook, lays the foundation for a better future for the segment from the supply side alone.
On the other side of the equation for both dry and wet segments, there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. And while previously there were production disruptions, economic concerns, as well as political reasons that combined were suppressing the market, now there seems to be another combination that allows the freight rates to improve and drive the real demand for seaborne trade. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environmental friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow.
Although nobody can foresee if the current freight market is sustainable or not, the fundamentals suggest so, at least for the short term. We will continue to have supply disruptions, limited ordering and fleet expansion on the one side, and solid growth from the developing and emerging economies on the other. So, as we have many times argued that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players is to perpetuate the game, as we enter a new era with higher environmental awareness, it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there as long as shipowners are patient and avoid overreactions.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 23 September 19
CHINA RECORDS SLOWER GROWTH IN COAL PRODUCTION - XINHUA
The growth of China’s raw coal production slowed down in August, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed.
Aro ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA TO INVITE BIDS FOR COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN DECEMBER - MINISTER FOR COAL
India aims to begin the process of holding the first round of commercial coal mining auctions December end, Minister for Coal, Mines and Parliament ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA: ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN IMPACTS COAL IMPORT CARGO IN H1 FY20 - PTI
Economic slowdown has impacted coal import cargo in the first half of this fiscal, as overall cargo growth at major ports registered a marginal gro ...
Wednesday, 18 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the first week of September, I had the privilege of attending the Donsö Shipping Meet 2019, in Donsö, a small island of around 1,& ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
PANAMA SHIP REGISTRY MODERNIZES SHIP REGISTRATION
The Panama Ship Registry has announced it will integrate in a single platform “Electronic Ship Registration System (ESRS)” the present ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
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