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Wednesday, 04 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 For yet another time, the market seems to have its own drivers. After a very disappointing first half, the recent recovery in the shipping market in the second half of this year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most shipowners if they are optimistic you will get a “yes...but...” reply.
On the dry bulk ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the world fleet has increased by 241 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2,4%, while one year earlier it was below 2%. Nonetheless, it's still a moderate fleet increase versus 4.4% percent real GDP growth of the emerging market and developing economies. For example, Bangladesh has 7.3% GDP Growth in 2019 and has also secured the top position in the world in achieving the highest GDP during the last 10 years.
The current dry bulk orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.7% of the world fleet. Whilst there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2019, the orderbook is today merely bigger than what it was a year ago by about 50 vessels. Furthermore, we are amidst of environmental regulations coming into force, with water ballast management systems being retrofitted (or not) and the bunkers already transitioning to comply with the 2020 sulphur cap.
Compared to the same time last year we have about 80 more vessels over 20years old, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent 9,5% of the dry bulk fleet.
On the tanker segment, things aren't less complicated. So far in 2019 there is less demolition activity, but also less new orders, while more ships have been delivered from the builders. The tanker fleet (>25,000dwt) has increased by about 3.5% led by MR tankers which increased by about 70 vessels, VLCCs followed with 55 vessels, 37 Aframaxes and just 15 Suezmaxes. The orderbook has not been replenished and is actually about 25% smaller than before, it represents about 7.7% of the trading fleet down from 10% same time last year. This rationalization of the orderbook, lays the foundation for a better future for the segment from the supply side alone.
On the other side of the equation for both dry and wet segments, there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. And while previously there were production disruptions, economic concerns, as well as political reasons that combined were suppressing the market, now there seems to be another combination that allows the freight rates to improve and drive the real demand for seaborne trade. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environmental friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow.
Although nobody can foresee if the current freight market is sustainable or not, the fundamentals suggest so, at least for the short term. We will continue to have supply disruptions, limited ordering and fleet expansion on the one side, and solid growth from the developing and emerging economies on the other. So, as we have many times argued that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players is to perpetuate the game, as we enter a new era with higher environmental awareness, it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there as long as shipowners are patient and avoid overreactions.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 15 October 19
INDIA READIES POLICY TO ATTRACT FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN COAL MINING - REUTERS
India expects to have formulated a policy within the next two weeks to attract foreign investment to its coal mining industry, the country's Co ...
Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing ...
Sunday, 13 October 19
INDONESIA: PANAMAX VESSELS OPEN SOUTH CHINA WERE REPORTEDLY FIXED AT $14,000 LEVEL, WITH REDELIVERY BACK IN CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market managed to find a floor and rally a little this week after several weeks of declines. While the West Australia to ...
Friday, 11 October 19
INDIAN MINERS REJECT PLAN TO LINK NATIONAL COAL INDEX TO FOREIGN PRICES - REUTERS
India’s miners are rejecting a government proposal to establish a national coal index that would be linked to international prices, documents ...
Friday, 11 October 19
THE OCTOBER BENCHMARK PRICE OF INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL DECLINES TO LOWEST SINCE OCTOBER 2016
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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