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Wednesday, 04 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 For yet another time, the market seems to have its own drivers. After a very disappointing first half, the recent recovery in the shipping market in the second half of this year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most shipowners if they are optimistic you will get a “yes...but...” reply.
On the dry bulk ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the world fleet has increased by 241 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2,4%, while one year earlier it was below 2%. Nonetheless, it's still a moderate fleet increase versus 4.4% percent real GDP growth of the emerging market and developing economies. For example, Bangladesh has 7.3% GDP Growth in 2019 and has also secured the top position in the world in achieving the highest GDP during the last 10 years.
The current dry bulk orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.7% of the world fleet. Whilst there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2019, the orderbook is today merely bigger than what it was a year ago by about 50 vessels. Furthermore, we are amidst of environmental regulations coming into force, with water ballast management systems being retrofitted (or not) and the bunkers already transitioning to comply with the 2020 sulphur cap.
Compared to the same time last year we have about 80 more vessels over 20years old, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent 9,5% of the dry bulk fleet.
On the tanker segment, things aren't less complicated. So far in 2019 there is less demolition activity, but also less new orders, while more ships have been delivered from the builders. The tanker fleet (>25,000dwt) has increased by about 3.5% led by MR tankers which increased by about 70 vessels, VLCCs followed with 55 vessels, 37 Aframaxes and just 15 Suezmaxes. The orderbook has not been replenished and is actually about 25% smaller than before, it represents about 7.7% of the trading fleet down from 10% same time last year. This rationalization of the orderbook, lays the foundation for a better future for the segment from the supply side alone.
On the other side of the equation for both dry and wet segments, there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. And while previously there were production disruptions, economic concerns, as well as political reasons that combined were suppressing the market, now there seems to be another combination that allows the freight rates to improve and drive the real demand for seaborne trade. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environmental friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow.
Although nobody can foresee if the current freight market is sustainable or not, the fundamentals suggest so, at least for the short term. We will continue to have supply disruptions, limited ordering and fleet expansion on the one side, and solid growth from the developing and emerging economies on the other. So, as we have many times argued that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players is to perpetuate the game, as we enter a new era with higher environmental awareness, it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there as long as shipowners are patient and avoid overreactions.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 24 October 19
AUSTRALIA'S HOPES TO EXPAND COAL EXPORTS IN SOUTH-EAST ASIA 'DELUSIONAL', EXPERTS SAY - THE GUARDIAN
The number of new coal-fired power plants starting construction across south-east Asia has fallen markedly over the past two years as Australia has ...
Thursday, 24 October 19
PANAMAX: NEGATIVE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The market has continued to slide the last week, as lack of fresh requirements and a slight oversupply of tonnage heading towards Sout ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
CHINA'S 2019 COAL IMPORTS SET TO RISE MORE THAN 10%: ANALYSTS - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal buyer, is on track to boost imports of the fuel by more than 10% this year, traders and analysts said on Tuesday, ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Moving closer to the end of the year, we are facing what the market was expecting for quite a while, the ship repair sector booming with the shipya ...
Tuesday, 22 October 19
DRY BULK: DESPITE THE DOWNWARD CORRECTION NOTED OVER THE PAST MONTH, RATES ARE STILL HOLDING OFF AT FAVORABLE LEVELS - ALLIED SHIPPING
Despite the downward correction that has been noted in the dry bulk market over the past month, rates are still holding off at favorable levels. Ev ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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