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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Tuesday, 19 February 19
FAST DEPLETING COAL RESERVES COULD PUSH UP ENERGY PRICES, CAUTIONS EXPERT - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The fast depletion of coal, a strategic resource and India’s fuel of choice currently, has huge implications for energy costs, according to K ...
Monday, 18 February 19
INDIA'S COAL IMPORT FALLS TO 17.25 MT IN JANUARY - PTI
Coal imports saw a decline in January FY 2019 to 17.25 MT from 19.59 MT in the same month of the previous fiscal, according to a report by mjunctio ...
Monday, 18 February 19
THE ROLE OF COAL IN INDIA'S ENERGY AMBITIONS - WCA
India is the world’s second most populous country and figures among the world’s most rapidly growing economies.
The Sout ...
Saturday, 16 February 19
COALTRANS CHINA 2019, CHINA'S LARGEST COAL INDUSTRY GATHERING
Press Release: Coaltrans China 2019 | With the import ban likely to be lifted, it’s time for you to meet your potentia ...
Wednesday, 13 February 19
MALAYSIA WAS THE REGION'S LARGEST COAL IMPORTER WITH 34 MT IN 2018, UP 25% Y-O-Y
Although coal market in 2018 started with strong prices, starting in the beginning of the second half of 2018, the international spot prices for co ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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