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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
 Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping says, at the end of 2018, we were noting strong levels of optimism and bullish sentiment for the year that lay ahead, especially when given the overall recovery that had been noted in 2018 and 2017, whilst most core index figures finished at relatively good levels. Given these positive trends, for most, 2019 was set to also be a year of general upward momentum, inline somehow with the perceived perception that fundamentals were still improving and there would be more balanced and sustainable dynamics witnessed in the market. Even for those that held a more conservative view as to how things would transpire, few would have called the steepness of the downward correction noted, the increased volatility or the continuous shifts in sentiment that characterize the current market.
After more than 3 months of being stuck in the doldrums, Thomas Chasapis says, with volatility rising for the first quarter of this year by 178% compared to the same time frame back in 2018 (using standard deviation), we finally saw the BDI pass above the 1,000 basis point mark once more (a point last held at the end of January). Even if you consider this recovery to be momentary and driven mainly by the recovery noted in the Capesize segment, it still represents a huge “breather” for the overall dry sector.
Taking this last point, it is interesting to see the BCI trends of late in more detail. The BCI time charter average closed on Friday at US$ 11,182/day, while just a month prior, it had reached its lowest level (since 2016) of 3,460 US$/day, as such placing the recovery gain in the region of 223% in almost 1 month. If this doesn’t sound so impressive, the BCI index made an even more impressive jump, going from a low point of 92 basis points at the very start of April, up to 1,290 points (14 times higher!).
Furthermore, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping noted that, adding a taste of forward sentiment coming through the paper market, a considerable boost was noted not only for FFA contracts for this year, but also for the calendar years of 2020 and 2021. Notwithstanding this, there is still a fair bit of road ahead before we start witnessing any sort of rebalancing in this segment. The turmoil derived from the Vale incident a few months back continues to shake the market, while now, given that most parties involved are now in the process of adapting to the new market realities, we can expect huge levels of volatility and asymmetries for the rest of the year (at least). Moreover, even if we assume an increase in demand for iron ore in the near term and that it will be absorbed completely by the other main exporters (such as Australia), we will still be left with a tremendous gap in tonne-miles which will continue to add an excessive amount of negative pressure on freight rates.
All-in-all, while leaving aside the rather mediocre state being portrayed right now in the dry bulk sector in terms of earnings, the point that troubles most is the overall feeling of uncertainty surrounding the market. Moreover, given a potential 25% levy to be imposed in US imports from China by this Friday as mentioned by President Trump’s tweets on Sunday, it is obvious that we will continue to face random and unpredictable shocks, with tremendous consequences to the overall state of the freight market. With all being said, even under good and strong fundamentals (i.e. balanced supply-demand dynamics), it is very difficult at this point to make any confident assumptions as to what direction the market will take next, even on a short-term basis.
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Monday, 24 December 18
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET ON BACKFOOT AS 2018'S END DRAWS NEAR - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Panic set in in the East as the holiday season approaches, with owners chasing rates lower. Rates on the key West Australia/China route ...
Friday, 21 December 18
4.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK SHIPS SCRAPPED UNTIL 17 DEC, DOWN 71.6% Y/Y - BIMCO
2018 has been a slow year for dry bulk demolitions, with only 4.2 million DWT scrapped (as of 17 December), down 71.6% compared to last year. An al ...
Thursday, 20 December 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES DIVERGE FROM KEY BENCHMARK - FITCH RATINGS
The Newcastle 6,000kcal coal price benchmark that is widely used to determine most coal price estimates for Indonesian coal miners has increasingly ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
CHINA'S IMPORT RESTRICTIONS ON COAL SPOILS THE PARTY FOR PANAMAXES - DREWRY
The Chinese government’s objective of suppressing coal and lignite imports in November and December 2018 is adversely impacting demand for Pa ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND SET TO REMAIN STABLE THROUGH 2023, DESPITE HEADWINDS - IEA
While global coal demand looks set to rise for the second year in a row in 2018, it is forecast to remain stable over the next five years, as decli ...
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Showing 1516 to 1520 news of total 6871 |
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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