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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
 Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping says, at the end of 2018, we were noting strong levels of optimism and bullish sentiment for the year that lay ahead, especially when given the overall recovery that had been noted in 2018 and 2017, whilst most core index figures finished at relatively good levels. Given these positive trends, for most, 2019 was set to also be a year of general upward momentum, inline somehow with the perceived perception that fundamentals were still improving and there would be more balanced and sustainable dynamics witnessed in the market. Even for those that held a more conservative view as to how things would transpire, few would have called the steepness of the downward correction noted, the increased volatility or the continuous shifts in sentiment that characterize the current market.
After more than 3 months of being stuck in the doldrums, Thomas Chasapis says, with volatility rising for the first quarter of this year by 178% compared to the same time frame back in 2018 (using standard deviation), we finally saw the BDI pass above the 1,000 basis point mark once more (a point last held at the end of January). Even if you consider this recovery to be momentary and driven mainly by the recovery noted in the Capesize segment, it still represents a huge “breather” for the overall dry sector.
Taking this last point, it is interesting to see the BCI trends of late in more detail. The BCI time charter average closed on Friday at US$ 11,182/day, while just a month prior, it had reached its lowest level (since 2016) of 3,460 US$/day, as such placing the recovery gain in the region of 223% in almost 1 month. If this doesn’t sound so impressive, the BCI index made an even more impressive jump, going from a low point of 92 basis points at the very start of April, up to 1,290 points (14 times higher!).
Furthermore, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping noted that, adding a taste of forward sentiment coming through the paper market, a considerable boost was noted not only for FFA contracts for this year, but also for the calendar years of 2020 and 2021. Notwithstanding this, there is still a fair bit of road ahead before we start witnessing any sort of rebalancing in this segment. The turmoil derived from the Vale incident a few months back continues to shake the market, while now, given that most parties involved are now in the process of adapting to the new market realities, we can expect huge levels of volatility and asymmetries for the rest of the year (at least). Moreover, even if we assume an increase in demand for iron ore in the near term and that it will be absorbed completely by the other main exporters (such as Australia), we will still be left with a tremendous gap in tonne-miles which will continue to add an excessive amount of negative pressure on freight rates.
All-in-all, while leaving aside the rather mediocre state being portrayed right now in the dry bulk sector in terms of earnings, the point that troubles most is the overall feeling of uncertainty surrounding the market. Moreover, given a potential 25% levy to be imposed in US imports from China by this Friday as mentioned by President Trump’s tweets on Sunday, it is obvious that we will continue to face random and unpredictable shocks, with tremendous consequences to the overall state of the freight market. With all being said, even under good and strong fundamentals (i.e. balanced supply-demand dynamics), it is very difficult at this point to make any confident assumptions as to what direction the market will take next, even on a short-term basis.
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Tuesday, 08 January 19
GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT HEALTHY IN 2019 - ALLIED
2019 is here and we find ourselves with new challenges for the shipping industry and the global economy as whole, with market prospects being neith ...
Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
• The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, prim ...
Monday, 07 January 19
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FALLS FOR FIFTH STRAIGHT MONTH IN JANUARY 2019; LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 07 January 19
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.9% TO 433.4 MLN TONNES IN 2018 - TASS
Coal production in Russia in 2018 increased by 5.9% year-on-year to 433.4 mln tonnes, according to the Central Dispatching Department of Fuel Energ ...
Friday, 04 January 19
FOCUS IS ON BOOSTING COAL PRODUCTION: INDIAN COAL MINISTER
The current focus of the government is on boosting production from operational coal mines, according to Minister for Coal, Piyush Goyal.
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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