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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 22 August 18
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 480K TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT & SHIN BORYEONG POWER PLANTS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 480,000 mt of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origi ...
Wednesday, 22 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE PANAGOPOULOS
During the most quite week of the summer period we witnessed a trade war between United States and Turkey. A battle, which started with the arrest ...
Monday, 20 August 18
SUPRAMAX: OVERALL IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE BSI INDEX WITH GAINS MADE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A week of largely unfulfilled expectations with holidays again curbing activity. Rates remained essentially healthy, but despite bad wea ...
Friday, 17 August 18
DO ARBITRATION AGREEMENTS IN BILLS OF LADING BIND THEIR HOLDERS? - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Bills of lading are a crucial part of the security package traditionally sought by trade finance providers.
...
Friday, 17 August 18
MALAYSIA'S MANJUNG 4 - WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION
According to the IEA’s Energy Access Outlook 2017 report, nearly all of those who gained access to electricity worldwide in the last 16 years ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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