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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Monday, 21 October 19
SHIPPERS CHANGE COURSE AS FUEL RULES TARGET SULPHUR EMISSIONS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The International Maritime Organization (IMO), the industry’s regulator, will require all ships to reduce the level of sulphur in their engin ...
Monday, 21 October 19
COAL TO PLAY SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN SOUTH AFRICA POWER MIX - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
South Africa’s plans for additional power generation over the next decade will involve a variety of energy sources, with coal still playing a ...
Monday, 21 October 19
ULTRAMAX: IN ASIA, TRIPS FROM THE SINGAPORE AREA WERE PAYING BETWEEN $14,000 AND $16,000, DEPENDING ON THE VESSEL SIZE AND DURATION - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market traded in a relatively stable supported manner in the Pacific this week while the Atlantic experienced weakening turbulence ...
Friday, 18 October 19
WHY CRUDE TANKER RATES JUST FELL (HALFWAY) BACK TO EARTH - FREIGHT WAVES
Panic drove crude-tanker rates up, very briefly, to mind-bogglingly high assessed levels of around $300,000 per day. Now, the fear factor has been ...
Friday, 18 October 19
SHORT TERM STRENGTH FOR OZ COMMODITIES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Volatility in the global commodity markets is not expected to unduly rattle Australia’s commodity outlook through 2020, but the 2021 picture ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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