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Thursday, 08 October 09
INDIA DEMAND TO HELP DIRE COAL OUTLOOK - MACQUARIE


Reuters reported that, Macquarie Securities said on Wednesday its bearish short-term outlook on thermal coal may begin improving in a year's time on expected higher demand from Indian and Indonesian utilities.

"In the short term, over six months, we are very, very bearish on thermal. On a 12-month view, we start to turn more positive on thermal as Indonesian power plants pick up and India imports more coal," Adam Worthington, Macquarie Securities' head of Asian utilities and coal, told a conference in New Delhi.

The Australian brokerage's short-term view was based on higher production by Indonesia and softening demand from China due to less attractive arbitrage trades.

He said the market was well supplied through the second-half of 2009 as Indonesia plans an additional 22 million tonne production.

Macquarie saw better prospects for coking coal as the industry was less fragmented than thermal coal and there was a strong demand from China.

"We have got more supply discipline which means they can manage supplies better," he said.

Worthington said global thermal coal prices may firm up to $80 a tonne in 2010-11 (April-March), with an upside risk of $90/tonne, from expected $70/ tonne in 2009/10.

He said India may increase its thermal coal thermal imports by 30 million tonnes to about 80 million tonnes by 2012 and if local production failed to meet target the imports could go up to 100 million tonnes, as it seeks to add 78 GW by 2012.

Indonesia, which exports about 30 percent of its output to India, may add 6-7 gigawatts (GW) of power in 2011 leading to flat exports growth, he said.

This could force India to spend more and tap other regions in 2011 for coal imports as Indonesia will use the fuel for its own power plants.

Indonesia has passed an electricity law to open up a sector that is inefficient, heavily subsidised, and plagued by blackouts to more competition and fairer pricing.
Source: Reuters



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