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Wednesday, 13 February 19
MALAYSIA WAS THE REGION'S LARGEST COAL IMPORTER WITH 34 MT IN 2018, UP 25% Y-O-Y
COal ExcavatorAlthough coal market in 2018 started with strong prices, starting in the beginning of the second half of 2018, the international spot prices for coals of CV below 5,500 NAR were corrected downwards. Macro environment and increased volatility due to governments’ policies controls created significant challenges in the coal market. In spite of that, the global seaborne thermal coal market in 2018 increased by approximately 5% year-over-year (y-o-y) – supported by consumption growth in China, India and Southeast Asia says Adaro Energy's quarterly activities report for fourth quarter of 2018.
 
According to the report, in 4Q18 the decoupling between prices of Global Coal Newcastle (gCN) benchmark coal and sub-bituminous coal became wider. Greater supply of the latter was not met by enough demand in the market and hence prices for coal lower-than 5,500 kcal/kg NAR were under pressure, with the 4,200 kcal/kg being the most affected. Supply tightness of bituminous coal has kept gCN benchmark price elevated, averaging US$104.20 per tonne in 4Q18. Demand from China slowed down at the end of 2018 on the back of reduced power consumption from July to November 2018 before it went up again in December 2018 due to winter. China’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was maintained at around 50 during 4Q18 as continued tensions from the trade war between China and US caused demand for coal to be less than expected despite 4Q18 traditionally being a restocking season for China. Despite the slowdown in Q4, China’s overall coal imports (excluding coking coal) in 2018 increased by approximately 16 million tonnes y-o-y.
 
The report further noted that, on the other hand, India’s PMI was maintained above 50 and coal power generation increased by 7% y-o-y during 4Q18. India’s coal imports in 2018 increased by approximately 25 million tonnes to 160 million tonnes. Government’s approval on the tariff revisions for power plants in Mundra also helped to boost coal imports. Demand for coal imports in Southeast Asia, one of the pockets of growth for the global seaborne thermal coal market, increased by 17% y-o-y in 2018 to approximately 79 Mt. Demand for coal imports was led by Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. 
 
The report is also says, in nominal term, Malaysia was the region’s largest coal importer with 34 Mt in 2018, a 25% growth y-o-y. Meanwhile coal imports into Vietnam increased by 44%y-o-y. Demand from this region is expected to continue to grow along with the expansion of coal fired power plants capacity. Coal originated from Indonesia, US, Russia, Australia covered the increased demand, growing significantly altogether by 7% y-o-y. 
 
In Indonesia, according to official from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, total coal production reached 528 Mt in 2018, 8% higher than the 485 Mt target. Indonesia’s flexible supply side plays a key role in the supply of the 4,200 kcal/kg in the seaborne market.


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