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Wednesday, 06 February 19
THE BDI HAS EASED BACK TO 645 BP, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AUGUST 2016 - ALLIED
 The dry bulk sector is in the doldrums, with most market participants seemingly left utterly perplexed, and simultaneously, in pursuit of any positive signs to be had. All this seems to have its roots partly in the correction noted back in November of 2018, while the actual damage was not so much that made to realized earnings but rather the steep shift of sentiment towards doubt and skepticism in respect to the whole recovery story we have been seeing since 2016, Allied research report said.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping, in terms of numbers, the BDI has eased back to 645bp (while just 10 days back was above the 1,000bp mark), its lowest level since August 2016. This steep correction is in line with that of the Capesize segment, which witnessed a 49.9% decrease the past 10 days, while the free fall in the overall market had already begun from the very start of the year, with the Panamax and Supramax segments having lost 60% and 49% since early January. Even if we take under consideration the Chinese New Year lull, the accident at the Vale dam and the puzzling Chinese –US trade relations, it seems as though the problems being faced now by the market are deeper rooted and require a more wholistic view to be taken.
Allied further noted that, the paper market could be of help in capturing parts of the underlining sentiment at play in the market. After a good rally and performance during the summer period, late August saw a peak in the levels noted in FFA contracts for both 4Q18 but also for forward quarters, such as 1Q19. Indicatively, the Capesize TCA reached above US$ 15,000/day, while the Panamax TCA and Supramax TCA, were well above US$ 11,000/day and even reached levels close to US$ 12,000/day in the case of the Panamaxes.
Looking at it in retrospect, the exaggeration is rather apparent. However, the interesting part comes later. In November the derivatives market was on a sharp downward correction, heavily influenced by the major drop in the Capesize freight market. At this point, we saw a hefty collapse in Capesize FFA rates, with contracts for the month of January being at levels of around US$ 11,500/day, far more bearish than the US$ 14,142/day the actual market witnessed in the end. At the same time the Panamax and Supramax sizes noted levels of between US$ 10,000 and US$ 11,000 per day in the FFA market, while the actual market figures closed in at US$ 8,342 and US$ 8,547 per day respectively.
From this it is interesting to note how the paper market even at its most bearish proved to be overly optimistic rather than going with the theoretical approach whereby an actual market shock would reflect a bigger asymmetry in the paper market (as that note in the Capesize market). If the trends in paper market seem to be rather disconnected with what the actual market is doing, it’s even harder to put your finger on the recent share buy-back activity noted at the final part of last year. Given what we witnessed during January, this move seems somehow “expensive” now, especially in an industry that is struggling to be publicly funded. Either there was a touch of conviction as to the future market’s potential (despite the stringer availability of capital overall and the future need for sufficient cash flow so as to meet upcoming regulatory requirements), or it was merely a decision of buying below net asset value and boosting key financial ratios such as EPS. It is likely that the answer lies somewhere in between. All being said, there is still hope for a quick recovery at hand, but given the severe weakening in freight returns, maybe it is time to re-evaluate the levels at which the market will be finding a balance during the course of the year said Allied.
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Wednesday, 06 February 19
FEBRUARY 2019 INDONESIA'S COAL REFERENCE PRICE FELL 8.83 PERCENT YOY
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 04 February 19
COAL STILL IN HIGH DEMAND GLOBALLY
Although the world is switching to renewable energy there is still a big demand for coal around the globe.
This is according to Cany ...
Friday, 01 February 19
ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, FOR TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $7,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Vale dam tragedy sparked a sharp fall in rates across all regions even where tonnage remained tight. The potential loss of product ...
Friday, 01 February 19
SEMBCORP SELECTS NORDEN FOR LONG-TERM INDIAN CONTRACT
NORDEN A/S has signed a 10-year Panamax Contract of Affreightment (COA) with Indian utility firm Sembcorp Energy India Ltd.
From 1 A ...
Tuesday, 29 January 19
HARD COAL BEARS THE BRUNT OF THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE COMMISSION GROWTH STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND EMPLOYMENT - VDKI
Press Release: Hard coal bears the brunt of the recommendations of the Commission Growth Structural change and employment.
In its fi ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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