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Wednesday, 06 February 19
THE BDI HAS EASED BACK TO 645 BP, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AUGUST 2016 - ALLIED
 The dry bulk sector is in the doldrums, with most market participants seemingly left utterly perplexed, and simultaneously, in pursuit of any positive signs to be had. All this seems to have its roots partly in the correction noted back in November of 2018, while the actual damage was not so much that made to realized earnings but rather the steep shift of sentiment towards doubt and skepticism in respect to the whole recovery story we have been seeing since 2016, Allied research report said.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping, in terms of numbers, the BDI has eased back to 645bp (while just 10 days back was above the 1,000bp mark), its lowest level since August 2016. This steep correction is in line with that of the Capesize segment, which witnessed a 49.9% decrease the past 10 days, while the free fall in the overall market had already begun from the very start of the year, with the Panamax and Supramax segments having lost 60% and 49% since early January. Even if we take under consideration the Chinese New Year lull, the accident at the Vale dam and the puzzling Chinese –US trade relations, it seems as though the problems being faced now by the market are deeper rooted and require a more wholistic view to be taken.
Allied further noted that, the paper market could be of help in capturing parts of the underlining sentiment at play in the market. After a good rally and performance during the summer period, late August saw a peak in the levels noted in FFA contracts for both 4Q18 but also for forward quarters, such as 1Q19. Indicatively, the Capesize TCA reached above US$ 15,000/day, while the Panamax TCA and Supramax TCA, were well above US$ 11,000/day and even reached levels close to US$ 12,000/day in the case of the Panamaxes.
Looking at it in retrospect, the exaggeration is rather apparent. However, the interesting part comes later. In November the derivatives market was on a sharp downward correction, heavily influenced by the major drop in the Capesize freight market. At this point, we saw a hefty collapse in Capesize FFA rates, with contracts for the month of January being at levels of around US$ 11,500/day, far more bearish than the US$ 14,142/day the actual market witnessed in the end. At the same time the Panamax and Supramax sizes noted levels of between US$ 10,000 and US$ 11,000 per day in the FFA market, while the actual market figures closed in at US$ 8,342 and US$ 8,547 per day respectively.
From this it is interesting to note how the paper market even at its most bearish proved to be overly optimistic rather than going with the theoretical approach whereby an actual market shock would reflect a bigger asymmetry in the paper market (as that note in the Capesize market). If the trends in paper market seem to be rather disconnected with what the actual market is doing, it’s even harder to put your finger on the recent share buy-back activity noted at the final part of last year. Given what we witnessed during January, this move seems somehow “expensive” now, especially in an industry that is struggling to be publicly funded. Either there was a touch of conviction as to the future market’s potential (despite the stringer availability of capital overall and the future need for sufficient cash flow so as to meet upcoming regulatory requirements), or it was merely a decision of buying below net asset value and boosting key financial ratios such as EPS. It is likely that the answer lies somewhere in between. All being said, there is still hope for a quick recovery at hand, but given the severe weakening in freight returns, maybe it is time to re-evaluate the levels at which the market will be finding a balance during the course of the year said Allied.
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Wednesday, 06 February 19
FEBRUARY 2019 INDONESIA'S COAL REFERENCE PRICE FELL 8.83 PERCENT YOY
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 04 February 19
COAL STILL IN HIGH DEMAND GLOBALLY
Although the world is switching to renewable energy there is still a big demand for coal around the globe.
This is according to Cany ...
Friday, 01 February 19
ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, FOR TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $7,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Vale dam tragedy sparked a sharp fall in rates across all regions even where tonnage remained tight. The potential loss of product ...
Friday, 01 February 19
SEMBCORP SELECTS NORDEN FOR LONG-TERM INDIAN CONTRACT
NORDEN A/S has signed a 10-year Panamax Contract of Affreightment (COA) with Indian utility firm Sembcorp Energy India Ltd.
From 1 A ...
Tuesday, 29 January 19
HARD COAL BEARS THE BRUNT OF THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE COMMISSION GROWTH STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND EMPLOYMENT - VDKI
Press Release: Hard coal bears the brunt of the recommendations of the Commission Growth Structural change and employment.
In its fi ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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