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Wednesday, 06 February 19
THE BDI HAS EASED BACK TO 645 BP, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AUGUST 2016 - ALLIED
 The dry bulk sector is in the doldrums, with most market participants seemingly left utterly perplexed, and simultaneously, in pursuit of any positive signs to be had. All this seems to have its roots partly in the correction noted back in November of 2018, while the actual damage was not so much that made to realized earnings but rather the steep shift of sentiment towards doubt and skepticism in respect to the whole recovery story we have been seeing since 2016, Allied research report said.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping, in terms of numbers, the BDI has eased back to 645bp (while just 10 days back was above the 1,000bp mark), its lowest level since August 2016. This steep correction is in line with that of the Capesize segment, which witnessed a 49.9% decrease the past 10 days, while the free fall in the overall market had already begun from the very start of the year, with the Panamax and Supramax segments having lost 60% and 49% since early January. Even if we take under consideration the Chinese New Year lull, the accident at the Vale dam and the puzzling Chinese –US trade relations, it seems as though the problems being faced now by the market are deeper rooted and require a more wholistic view to be taken.
Allied further noted that, the paper market could be of help in capturing parts of the underlining sentiment at play in the market. After a good rally and performance during the summer period, late August saw a peak in the levels noted in FFA contracts for both 4Q18 but also for forward quarters, such as 1Q19. Indicatively, the Capesize TCA reached above US$ 15,000/day, while the Panamax TCA and Supramax TCA, were well above US$ 11,000/day and even reached levels close to US$ 12,000/day in the case of the Panamaxes.
Looking at it in retrospect, the exaggeration is rather apparent. However, the interesting part comes later. In November the derivatives market was on a sharp downward correction, heavily influenced by the major drop in the Capesize freight market. At this point, we saw a hefty collapse in Capesize FFA rates, with contracts for the month of January being at levels of around US$ 11,500/day, far more bearish than the US$ 14,142/day the actual market witnessed in the end. At the same time the Panamax and Supramax sizes noted levels of between US$ 10,000 and US$ 11,000 per day in the FFA market, while the actual market figures closed in at US$ 8,342 and US$ 8,547 per day respectively.
From this it is interesting to note how the paper market even at its most bearish proved to be overly optimistic rather than going with the theoretical approach whereby an actual market shock would reflect a bigger asymmetry in the paper market (as that note in the Capesize market). If the trends in paper market seem to be rather disconnected with what the actual market is doing, it’s even harder to put your finger on the recent share buy-back activity noted at the final part of last year. Given what we witnessed during January, this move seems somehow “expensive” now, especially in an industry that is struggling to be publicly funded. Either there was a touch of conviction as to the future market’s potential (despite the stringer availability of capital overall and the future need for sufficient cash flow so as to meet upcoming regulatory requirements), or it was merely a decision of buying below net asset value and boosting key financial ratios such as EPS. It is likely that the answer lies somewhere in between. All being said, there is still hope for a quick recovery at hand, but given the severe weakening in freight returns, maybe it is time to re-evaluate the levels at which the market will be finding a balance during the course of the year said Allied.
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Wednesday, 06 February 19
FEBRUARY 2019 INDONESIA'S COAL REFERENCE PRICE FELL 8.83 PERCENT YOY
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 04 February 19
COAL STILL IN HIGH DEMAND GLOBALLY
Although the world is switching to renewable energy there is still a big demand for coal around the globe.
This is according to Cany ...
Friday, 01 February 19
ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, FOR TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $7,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Vale dam tragedy sparked a sharp fall in rates across all regions even where tonnage remained tight. The potential loss of product ...
Friday, 01 February 19
SEMBCORP SELECTS NORDEN FOR LONG-TERM INDIAN CONTRACT
NORDEN A/S has signed a 10-year Panamax Contract of Affreightment (COA) with Indian utility firm Sembcorp Energy India Ltd.
From 1 A ...
Tuesday, 29 January 19
HARD COAL BEARS THE BRUNT OF THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE COMMISSION GROWTH STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND EMPLOYMENT - VDKI
Press Release: Hard coal bears the brunt of the recommendations of the Commission Growth Structural change and employment.
In its fi ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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