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Tuesday, 29 January 19
CHINA HAS BEEN THE TOP DRIVER OF GLOBAL GROWTH FOR NEARLY TWO DECADES - ALLIED
 China has been the top driver of global growth for nearly two decades now, pushing demand for seaborne trade and being the key influencer for demand of several major trading commodities. The annual data of this Asian giant were revealed just a few days ago, sparking concerns for the economic state of the country.
According to Yiannis Vamvakas, Research Analyst of Allied, China’s GDP expanded in the previous year by 6.6%, a rate that may sound impressive compared to other OECD countries, but it is the lowest pace the country has seen since 1990. In addition, the latest quarterly growth figure stands at 6.4%, the weakest rate since the global financial crisis. With China accounting for one-third of global growth, it is no surprise that the International Monetary Fund revised its global economic growth forecast for 2019 by -0.2% and pointed out that risks for further downward corrections are high. It is fair to point out that this slowdown has been expected by most including Beijing itself. The declining trend in China’s economic growth has been in the works since 2010, with the local government making steps to slowly transform from primarily a manufacturing based economy to a service based one. Of course, the impacts on global trade from this will be slow and gradual. An economic poll conducted by Reuters showed that the majority of economists expect China to slowdown further in 2019 down to 6.3%, while the IMF predicts a 6.2% growth rate.
The weekly report of Allied further noted that, apart from this disappointing growth data, production and trade data for 2018 have also been worrying. The Caixin/Markit manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) declined in December 2018 to 49.7, slipping back into contraction for a first time in 19 months. Industrial profits also fell in December, dropping by 1.9. Moreover, China’s exports declined in December by 4.4%, the most in almost two years, while imports were also decreased by 7.6%. Regarding iron ore, a key commodity for dry bulk shipping, Chinese imports declined by 1%, falling to 1.064 billion tons from 1.075 billion tons in 2017, in their first annual decline since 2010. At the same time, steel exports continued to a soften in 2018, hurt by the current trade war with the US. On the other hand, coal imports by the Asian behemoth increased to their highest number in the last four years, reaching 281.5 million tons. However, imports were curbed during the last couple of months following a government strategy to support domestic coal prices. On the soya bean front, the impact of the US trade tariffs was significant, shifting imports’ sources from the US to different producing nations. However, it is worth mentioning that total Chinese exports in 2018 remained on a positive course, with China’s trade surplus with the US growing despite the trade tariffs, according to Chinese government data. However, the tariffs that have been imposed by the US government remain an important headache. With negotiations between the two countries having started, a lot of focus has been placed on the March deadline, when most hope a final decision will be reached. The aftermath of the negotiations may lead to further reshaping in global trade. With 2018 being an alarming year for the Chinese economy, affecting the shipping markets as well, it is significant to see if this disappointing year was just a parenthesis.
The risks placed by a further slowdown in the Chinese economy on global trade as well as shipping markets is still high, but we should keep in mind that China’s growth maybe contracting but still remains robust. However, questions regarding the capability of the global economy to decrease its dependence to China are intensifying.
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
THE RELATIVELY DISAPPOINTING SCENE PORTRAYED IN THE DRY BULK MARKET RIGHT NOW - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
The relatively disappointing scene portrayed in the dry bulk market right now (especially in the Capesize segment) is undoubtedly one of the prevai ...
Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has be ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
EFFECTIVE NOTICES OF ARBITRATION - AVOIDING WASTED COSTS AND A POTENTIALLY TIME-BARRED CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent case, The Amity [2017], charterers successfully set aside an arbitration award on the basis that ow ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Market experts mostly agree that the recent dry bulk market downtrend was caused by seasonal slowdown amid the Chinese New Year celebrations in com ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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