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Tuesday, 29 January 19
CHINA HAS BEEN THE TOP DRIVER OF GLOBAL GROWTH FOR NEARLY TWO DECADES - ALLIED
 China has been the top driver of global growth for nearly two decades now, pushing demand for seaborne trade and being the key influencer for demand of several major trading commodities. The annual data of this Asian giant were revealed just a few days ago, sparking concerns for the economic state of the country.
According to Yiannis Vamvakas, Research Analyst of Allied, China’s GDP expanded in the previous year by 6.6%, a rate that may sound impressive compared to other OECD countries, but it is the lowest pace the country has seen since 1990. In addition, the latest quarterly growth figure stands at 6.4%, the weakest rate since the global financial crisis. With China accounting for one-third of global growth, it is no surprise that the International Monetary Fund revised its global economic growth forecast for 2019 by -0.2% and pointed out that risks for further downward corrections are high. It is fair to point out that this slowdown has been expected by most including Beijing itself. The declining trend in China’s economic growth has been in the works since 2010, with the local government making steps to slowly transform from primarily a manufacturing based economy to a service based one. Of course, the impacts on global trade from this will be slow and gradual. An economic poll conducted by Reuters showed that the majority of economists expect China to slowdown further in 2019 down to 6.3%, while the IMF predicts a 6.2% growth rate.
The weekly report of Allied further noted that, apart from this disappointing growth data, production and trade data for 2018 have also been worrying. The Caixin/Markit manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) declined in December 2018 to 49.7, slipping back into contraction for a first time in 19 months. Industrial profits also fell in December, dropping by 1.9. Moreover, China’s exports declined in December by 4.4%, the most in almost two years, while imports were also decreased by 7.6%. Regarding iron ore, a key commodity for dry bulk shipping, Chinese imports declined by 1%, falling to 1.064 billion tons from 1.075 billion tons in 2017, in their first annual decline since 2010. At the same time, steel exports continued to a soften in 2018, hurt by the current trade war with the US. On the other hand, coal imports by the Asian behemoth increased to their highest number in the last four years, reaching 281.5 million tons. However, imports were curbed during the last couple of months following a government strategy to support domestic coal prices. On the soya bean front, the impact of the US trade tariffs was significant, shifting imports’ sources from the US to different producing nations. However, it is worth mentioning that total Chinese exports in 2018 remained on a positive course, with China’s trade surplus with the US growing despite the trade tariffs, according to Chinese government data. However, the tariffs that have been imposed by the US government remain an important headache. With negotiations between the two countries having started, a lot of focus has been placed on the March deadline, when most hope a final decision will be reached. The aftermath of the negotiations may lead to further reshaping in global trade. With 2018 being an alarming year for the Chinese economy, affecting the shipping markets as well, it is significant to see if this disappointing year was just a parenthesis.
The risks placed by a further slowdown in the Chinese economy on global trade as well as shipping markets is still high, but we should keep in mind that China’s growth maybe contracting but still remains robust. However, questions regarding the capability of the global economy to decrease its dependence to China are intensifying.
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
THE RELATIVELY DISAPPOINTING SCENE PORTRAYED IN THE DRY BULK MARKET RIGHT NOW - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
The relatively disappointing scene portrayed in the dry bulk market right now (especially in the Capesize segment) is undoubtedly one of the prevai ...
Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has be ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
EFFECTIVE NOTICES OF ARBITRATION - AVOIDING WASTED COSTS AND A POTENTIALLY TIME-BARRED CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent case, The Amity [2017], charterers successfully set aside an arbitration award on the basis that ow ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Market experts mostly agree that the recent dry bulk market downtrend was caused by seasonal slowdown amid the Chinese New Year celebrations in com ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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