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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 09 May 19
OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN CONGRESS 2019
Offshore Caribbean Congress 2019
Event Date: 4-5th July. 2019t
Location: Georgetown, Guyana
Hess announced a new d ...
Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Re ...
Saturday, 04 May 19
HOW THE 'FAIR VALUE' OF COAL ASSETS IS AFFECTED BY COMMODITY CYCLES - CRU
As with any commodity, valuing coal assets can be tricky due to the cyclical nature of the market. In this insight, CRU discusses how commodity cyc ...
Friday, 03 May 19
SUPRAMAX: WITH WIDESPREAD HOLIDAYS DURING THE WEEK, THE MARKET LACKED IMPETUS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market last week was a tale of two halves, with substantial volatility. Beginning the week on a positive note the C5 West Australi ...
Friday, 03 May 19
COAL INDIA APRIL OUTPUT RISES 1% TO 45.29 MILLION TONNE - PTI
Coal India Ltd (CIL) Wednesday said its coal production in April 2019 rose by 1 per cent to 45.29 million tonne as compared with 44.86 million tonn ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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