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Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
 • The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, primarily driven by declining import demand from China.
• Australia’s export volumes are forecast to grow from 203 million tonnes in 2017–18 to 209 million tonnes in 2019–20, reflecting productivity improvements and modest production growth from new capacity.
• Australia’s thermal coal export earnings are forecast to reach a new record of $26 billion in 2018–19, up from a record $23 billion in 2017–18, driven by strong prices. Export earnings are then forecast to decline to $20 billion in 2019–20, as the impact of lower prices more than offsets rising export volumes.
Prices have declined on weak import demand from China
The Newcastle benchmark spot price (6000 kcal/kg net as received) averaged an estimated US$100 a tonne in the December quarter of 2018, a 13 per cent decline from the previous quarter, but 6.9 per cent higher year-on-year. Prices steadily declined to below US$100 a tonne in November, almost a 6-month low, primarily as a result of falling import demand from China, due to stronger domestic production and softening power demand in the period between summer and winter, said Department of Industry, Innovation and Science, Australia in Thermal coal resources and Energy Quarterly December 2018
The report further noted that, Chinese imports are expected to fall sharply in November and December on the back of tightened restrictions on coal imports, with reports that these may be extended through to the Chinese New Year period for some power utilities. The gap in prices for high and low quality coals narrowed in the December quarter, as the Newcastle benchmark price fell more sharply than the prices for lower quality coals. Nevertheless, the price difference remains at high levels compared to the last five years. The gap has been driven by growing demand for higher quality coal due to air quality concerns, particularly in east Asia, and lower supply of higher quality coal.
Thermal coal prices are forecast to drift lower due to softer demand
Commenting on thermal coal price forecast, Australia's Department of Industrysaid, the Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline over the next two years, from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$86 a tonne in 2019 and US$74 a tonne in 2020.
The Japanese Fiscal Year (JFY, April to March) contract price is forecast to settle at US$89 a tonne in 2019–20 and US$77 a tonne in 2020–21.
Thermal coal resources and Energy Quarterly December 2018 also noted that, the forecast decline in prices is driven primarily by an expected slowdown in import demand from China over the next two years. Ongoing policy changes to reduce emissions and dependency on coal in other major economies are also expected to weigh on demand and thus prices. Nevertheless, a lack of substantial investment in new thermal coal capacity is expected to put a floor under prices, which are forecast to remain well above the lows of 2015 and 2016. Despite the recent strength in prices, a range of factors have contributed to a slowdown in investment in Australia and the rest of the world, including difficulties attracting finance and uncertainty regarding future policy developments around the world.
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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Foll ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL EXPORTS WERE 116 MMST IN 2018, 20% HIGHER THAN THE AMOUNT EXPORTED IN 2017
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that coal production declined by 20 million short tons (MMst) (3%) in 2018, despite a 19 MMst increase in U.S. coal e ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
U.S COAL OUTPUT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY 3 PER CENT IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 729 million short tons (MMst) in 2019, down by 25 MMst (3%) from 2018.
Acco ...
Wednesday, 16 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we go through the first days of the year and just a few weeks before the Chinese New Year, the ship repair sector is witnessing a big difference ...
Monday, 14 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF MIN 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal for ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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