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Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
 • The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, primarily driven by declining import demand from China.
• Australia’s export volumes are forecast to grow from 203 million tonnes in 2017–18 to 209 million tonnes in 2019–20, reflecting productivity improvements and modest production growth from new capacity.
• Australia’s thermal coal export earnings are forecast to reach a new record of $26 billion in 2018–19, up from a record $23 billion in 2017–18, driven by strong prices. Export earnings are then forecast to decline to $20 billion in 2019–20, as the impact of lower prices more than offsets rising export volumes.
Prices have declined on weak import demand from China
The Newcastle benchmark spot price (6000 kcal/kg net as received) averaged an estimated US$100 a tonne in the December quarter of 2018, a 13 per cent decline from the previous quarter, but 6.9 per cent higher year-on-year. Prices steadily declined to below US$100 a tonne in November, almost a 6-month low, primarily as a result of falling import demand from China, due to stronger domestic production and softening power demand in the period between summer and winter, said Department of Industry, Innovation and Science, Australia in Thermal coal resources and Energy Quarterly December 2018
The report further noted that, Chinese imports are expected to fall sharply in November and December on the back of tightened restrictions on coal imports, with reports that these may be extended through to the Chinese New Year period for some power utilities. The gap in prices for high and low quality coals narrowed in the December quarter, as the Newcastle benchmark price fell more sharply than the prices for lower quality coals. Nevertheless, the price difference remains at high levels compared to the last five years. The gap has been driven by growing demand for higher quality coal due to air quality concerns, particularly in east Asia, and lower supply of higher quality coal.
Thermal coal prices are forecast to drift lower due to softer demand
Commenting on thermal coal price forecast, Australia's Department of Industrysaid, the Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline over the next two years, from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$86 a tonne in 2019 and US$74 a tonne in 2020.
The Japanese Fiscal Year (JFY, April to March) contract price is forecast to settle at US$89 a tonne in 2019–20 and US$77 a tonne in 2020–21.
Thermal coal resources and Energy Quarterly December 2018 also noted that, the forecast decline in prices is driven primarily by an expected slowdown in import demand from China over the next two years. Ongoing policy changes to reduce emissions and dependency on coal in other major economies are also expected to weigh on demand and thus prices. Nevertheless, a lack of substantial investment in new thermal coal capacity is expected to put a floor under prices, which are forecast to remain well above the lows of 2015 and 2016. Despite the recent strength in prices, a range of factors have contributed to a slowdown in investment in Australia and the rest of the world, including difficulties attracting finance and uncertainty regarding future policy developments around the world.
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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Foll ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL EXPORTS WERE 116 MMST IN 2018, 20% HIGHER THAN THE AMOUNT EXPORTED IN 2017
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that coal production declined by 20 million short tons (MMst) (3%) in 2018, despite a 19 MMst increase in U.S. coal e ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
U.S COAL OUTPUT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY 3 PER CENT IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 729 million short tons (MMst) in 2019, down by 25 MMst (3%) from 2018.
Acco ...
Wednesday, 16 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we go through the first days of the year and just a few weeks before the Chinese New Year, the ship repair sector is witnessing a big difference ...
Monday, 14 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF MIN 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal for ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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