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Thursday, 27 December 18
SHIPPING IS ENTERING A NEW ERA OF EVER CHALLENGING CONDITIONS - ALLIED
 As we move closer to the end of the year and we look forward into New Year, we are still finding ourselves looking deep into a market outlook full of precarious scenarios and shrouded by excess uncertainty, say Allied shipping in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied's research team, over the past year it has become ever increasingly difficult to be able to determine where the new equilibrium in the market will form. Shipping is entering a new era of ever challenging conditions, whether it be by new regulations and the shifting trends they can foretell on the supply side of the market, or it be by the fast paced political and economic shifts which easily cause sharp shifts on the demand side. Of course it is of note to say that across all the main sectors of bulk shipping we have seen a level of stability for when it comes to their respective fleet growth and the level of newbuilding ordering taking place. This has for some time helped ease back concern amongst most in the industry and has even allowed in some case for a strong sense of optimism to be regained. Given that on average we are seeing an orderbook to fleet ratio of just fewer than 9% across the dry bulk sector and just under 10% in the tanker sector, it seems as though the equilibrium that seems to have been struck of late could well be here to stay. This argument goes even further once you take note that in most cases considerably less than half of those orders are for the coming year, meaning that we don’t anticipate any extravagant shift on the supply side of the market within 2019 said Allied.
The report further noted that, yet there may well be factors coming into play that could disturb this balance. The excessive levels of new regulations coming into force in the relative near-term could pose a risk and push an increasing number of ship owners onto the new-building front (given the ease by which a vessel could be set to comply in comparison to an already trading vessel which needs to be retrofitted). In most cases these new orders would not do much to disrupt the fleet balance in 2019, but would in effect lead to a disruption in asset values of already trading ships and could in essence be the cause for excessive market volatility before these new orders are even delivered.
Realistically however the main concern over the past 12 months has shifted towards the ever-increasing troubles seen on the demand side of things. Over the past couple of years we have seen ever more political turmoil unfold and “war lines” being drawn on international trade. This has intensified considerably over the past 8 months and does not look to be dissipating any time soon (despite the recent “truce” agreed between the US and China). What turns this all into a highly precarious environment for international shipping is that this trade tension is in its biggest part between the world’s two largest economies, while at the same time it has been their 20 year old trading relationship that has in its most part helped bring about some of the most affluent market conditions the shipping industry has ever seen. The part that makes all this shrouded in excess uncertainty is the fact that the decisions are not being made or executed with any business sense or strategy but in their most part are a political charades which come and go in the most unpredictable way.
Taking all these and more into account, Allied says we would like to close the year wishing to all our readers a happy holiday season and that the New Year finds them in good health and fortune and hopefully within a market shifting back towards clarity and sense rather than further instability and random shocks.
Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.
- Allied shipping -
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Monday, 01 April 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL AT RISK FROM CHINA MOVE, WARNS GOVERNMENT REPORT - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
A new government report warns China’s restrictions on coal imports is the number one risk for Australian coal this year and could lead to a s ...
Saturday, 30 March 19
KOEN INVITES BIDS FOR 450,000 TONS OF (SUB) BITUMINOUS COAL FOR H1 AND JUNE 2019
South Korea state-owned utility KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) issued a tender for total 450,000 MT of min. 4300, 3500 and 5600 NCV ...
Wednesday, 27 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Contrary to the December 2018 forecasts but in line with the expectations of the dry bulk market, the first quarter of the year closed negatively. ...
Saturday, 23 March 19
IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE HANDY SIZE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The big ships endured heavy losses last week extinguishing any hopes from the recent minor rally. Negative sentiment gained pace throu ...
Friday, 22 March 19
CHINA MARKET: COAL OUT IN THE COLD - BUSINESS RECORDER
Though China maintains there is no ban, China-bound Australian coal shipments are looking for a new home. For the past few months, coal cargoes are ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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