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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Tuesday, 27 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GERRY LATHROP
With the almost complete phase out of Tier II new-building slots on our door step, along with the plethora of emissions related articles seemingly ...
Friday, 23 March 18
RIO TINTO AGREES SALE OF HAIL CREEK AND VALERIA TO GLENCORE FOR $1.7 BILLION
Press Release: Rio Tinto has entered into a binding agreement with Glencore for the sale of its entire interests in the Hail Creek coal mine and th ...
Wednesday, 21 March 18
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT UP IN 2017, FIRST GROWTH SINCE 2014 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose in 2017 due to rebounding demand and high-quality capacity, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 21 March 18
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER T. WHITTY
President’s Trump administration proposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports in an attempt to target China and Europe among others. Earlie ...
Tuesday, 20 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It has been a chilling start to the week for the global economy, with the vast majority of stock exchanges noting a fair drop, after a series of se ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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