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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Friday, 30 March 18
SHIPPING INDUSTRY CONFIDENCE HITS FOUR-YEAR HIGH - MOORE STEPHENS
Shipping Confidence Survey
In February 2018, the average confidence level expressed by respondents was up from 6.2 in November 2017 t ...
Friday, 30 March 18
EXPLAINING POLAND'S COAL PARADOX - FORBES
In the U.S. coal is succumbing to market forces despite the Trump Administration’s push to support the industry. Abundant, cheap and cleaner ...
Friday, 30 March 18
THIESS SECURES $140M MT OWEN INCREASE
Thiess has secured a A$140 million increase to its contract with Glencore for coal mining services at Mt Owen in the Hunter Valley, Australia. Mt O ...
Wednesday, 28 March 18
THIESS WINS $280M WAHANA EXTENSION
Thiess has been awarded a three-year $280 million contract extension at the Wahana coal mine in South Kalimantan, Indonesia.
According to Thie ...
Wednesday, 28 March 18
RIO TINTO TO SELL KESTREL MINE FOR $2.25 BILLION - REUTERS
Rio Tinto sold its remaining coal asset Kestrel in Australia to private equity manager EMR Capital and Indonesia’s Adaro Energy Tbk for $2.25 ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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