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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Monday, 11 June 18
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRICES HIT 6-YEAR HIGH AS ASIA DEMAND SPIKES - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have risen to their highest level since 2012 as hot weather across North Asia spurs buying ahead of the peak summer ...
Monday, 11 June 18
ANALYSING A NEW AGE OF AUTONOMOUS VESSELS - IMO
The International Maritime Organization answers the questions of Government Europa on how the next generation of autonomous vessels can be regulate ...
Friday, 08 June 18
AUSTRALIAN THERMAL COAL PRICES SURGE AS ASIA DEMAND HEATS UP - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have hit their highest level since late 2016 as the market heats up on strong demand across North Asia and China in ...
Wednesday, 06 June 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
As observed last month the price of oil hit its highest level since November 2014 reaching $80 per barrel. Global oil demand growth for 2018 was sl ...
Tuesday, 05 June 18
SOUTH KOREA'S SULPHUR CAP ALTERS ASIAN COAL MARKET DYNAMICS: RUSSELL
South Korea’s imposition of a strict sulphur cap on its imported coal is likely to cause ripples across Asia’s markets for the pollutin ...
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Showing 1701 to 1705 news of total 6871 |
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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