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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Tuesday, 26 June 18
A SHARP RISE IN THE PRICE OF CRUDE OIL WAS TO BE SEEN ON FRIDAY, ITS BIGGEST DAILY GAIN IN TWO YEARS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
A sharp rise in the price of crude oil was to be seen on Friday, its biggest daily gain in two years, as OPEC reached a deal to raise output. Despi ...
Monday, 25 June 18
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 12.179 MT OF COAL IN MAY; DOWN 14.77% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU1,453.6 Mi ...
Monday, 25 June 18
COAL IN THE CROSSFIRE: CHINESE TRADERS WARY OF BEING BURNT BY TRADE WAR - REUTERS
At least three U.S. coal shipments on their way to China may end up casualties of the escalating trade dispute after Beijing said it would impose s ...
Saturday, 23 June 18
COAL GROUP TARGETS 9 PER CENT REVENUE SPIKE - VIET NAM NEWS
Viet Nam News reported, the Viet Nam National Coal and Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomin or TKV) is targeting VNĐ116.9 trillion (US$5.1 billion) ...
Thursday, 21 June 18
ROBUST ASIAN THERMAL COAL DEMAND CREATES OPPORTUNITIES FOR AUSTRALIA - MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA
Minerals Council of Australia reported, Australia’s world-class coal mining industry can create more jobs in Australia and strengthen t ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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