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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Friday, 06 July 18
HOW FLEET SIZE, CORPORATE PROFILE AND STRATEGY ARE DECIDING FACTORS IN SELECTING AN APPROPRIATE FINANCING STRATEGY - PWC
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The challenges that shipping companies are facing when selecting an appropriate financing strategy during the current per ...
Friday, 06 July 18
INDIA: GOVT TO RELAX CURBS ON INDIAN FIRMS CHARTERING FOREIGN SHIPS - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The Ministry of Shipping is clearly in reform mode. On the heels of the recent relaxation of the cabotage law, which allows foreign flag vessels to ...
Friday, 06 July 18
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE SPOT COAL PRICES HIT $120 FOR 1ST TIME SINCE 2012 - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have broken through $120 per tonne for the first time since 2012, driven up by strong consumption in Asia and spot m ...
Thursday, 05 July 18
WHAT THE FAILED GLENCORE-TOHOKU COAL TALKS MEAN FOR THE MARKET - REUTERS
Electric utilities in Japan and other Asian countries are driving blind when it comes to coal prices after the failure of Japan’s Tohoku Elec ...
Thursday, 05 July 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS 74 MONTHS HIGH OF $104.65 A TON
COALspot.com: HBA keeps rising. According to latest ministerial decree No.1892 K/30/MEM/2018 dated 2 July 2018, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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