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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Tuesday, 10 July 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The trade dispute saga continued over the past week, as new tariffs were put into force on Friday in both the U.S. and China and have already taken ...
Tuesday, 10 July 18
SUPPORTING SULPHUR 2020 CONSISTENT IMPLEMENTATION - IMO
An IMO working group is meeting (9-13 July) to develop guidelines to support the consistent implementation of the 0.50% limit for the sulphur conte ...
Monday, 09 July 18
RISING COAL PRICES LIFTING AUSTRALIA'S EXPORT REVENUES BUT INVESTORS STAYING AWAY - NEWCASTLE HERALD
Newcastle coal prices have risen more than 40 per cent in a year to be at their highest levels for seven years but the industry is becoming increas ...
Saturday, 07 July 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN MARKET STRUGGLED; A 57K-DWT WAS REPORTED FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY INDIA AT $12K
Capesize
A punchy week for the big ships that saw Atlantic rates soar, with the tonnage list tight prompting charterers to split cargoes, thoug ...
Friday, 06 July 18
COAL PRICES HAVE REMAINED STRONG BUT ARE SET TO DECLINE - NAB
Coal spot prices have been highly volatile in recent years, with an upward trend since recent lows in April 2018, National Australia Bank says in i ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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