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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Tuesday, 24 July 18
TANKER MARKET : IN TERMS OF TRADE, THE STEPS THAT WERE SLOWLY BEING TAKEN BY OPEC AND RUSSIA - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Despite the fact that the tanker market still seems to be in the midst of a perfect storm, there are still strong indicators that better sailing da ...
Thursday, 19 July 18
VINACOMIN PRODUCES OVER 20 MLN TONNES OF RAW COAL FROM YEAR'S START - VNA
The Vietnam National Coal and Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomin) has produced over 20 million tonnes of raw coal and 19.3 million of clean coal f ...
Wednesday, 18 July 18
INDONESIA TO AUCTION 16 MINING SITES - JP
Indonesia will soon auction 16 mining sites as no proposal submissions have been submitted by state-owned enterprises (BUMN) and regional administr ...
Wednesday, 18 July 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS MOIRIS
The new regulations for Chinese flag restricting import of Tier I ships have dominated market sentiment during the past days as buyers have been tr ...
Thursday, 12 July 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA COAL RV IS BEING FIXED AROUND USD 10500 BSS SINGAPORE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Cape market continue to be extremely volatile says Fearnleys in its latst weekly report.
The further noted that, last week ended wi ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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