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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Saturday, 28 July 18
GOVERNMENT TO REVOKE COAL PRICE CAP POLICY - JP
The government plans to revise its domestic market obligation (DMO) on coal price next week during a high-level meeting with President Joko “ ...
Thursday, 26 July 18
A SUPRAMAX IS NOW PAID AROUND USD 21,500 FOR LOADING IN THE US GULF WITH DISCHARGE IN THE FAR EAST - FEARNLEYS
Cape
There has been a relatively strong summer period so far, and there is a strong week we have left behind us.
In the Pa ...
Thursday, 26 July 18
ASEAN COAL IMPORTS INCREASED IN 2Q' 18 COMPARED TO THE PRIOR YEAR; THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS 56 GIGAWATTS OF NEW COAL PLANTS IN 24 COUNTRIES WORLDWIDE ARE EXPECTED TO COME ONLINE IN 2018 - PEABODY
Peabody announced its second quarter 2018 operating results, including revenues of $1.31 billion, income from continuing operations, net of income ...
Wednesday, 25 July 18
COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM'S PROFIT GROWS 50% IN FIRST HALF - JP
Coal miner Bukit Asam announced 50 percent profit growth to Rp 2.58 trillion (US$177.33 million) in the first half of 2018, on the back of a coal-p ...
Wednesday, 25 July 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - DIMITRIS KOURTESIS
We are now into the second half of 2018, which so far has not been a fruitful year for tankers. With 2020 quickly approaching we need to consider t ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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