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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Thursday, 02 August 18
INDO / CHINA COAL RV'S IS PAYING AROUND USD 11,000 TO SUPRAS BSS DELIVERY SINGAPORE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The counter seasonally strong market during the summer months bodes well for the remainder of the year.
According ...
Wednesday, 01 August 18
JOKOWI CANCELS PLAN TO REVOKE COAL DMO - JP
President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo on Tuesday has canceled the government’s plan to revoke the domestic market obligation (DMO) for coa ...
Wednesday, 01 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
The dry bulk market activity over the past four weeks has remained stable when compared to the previous months. There are concerns with regards to ...
Tuesday, 31 July 18
INDONESIA UNLIKELY TO CHANGE COAL SUPPLY, PRICING RULES UNTIL 2019 - REUTERS
Indonesia is unlikely to change its rules on domestic coal supply and pricing until 2019, Coordinating Maritime Minister Luhut Pandjaitan said on M ...
Tuesday, 31 July 18
ENERGY MINISTRY REMAINS FIRM ON DMO POLICY FOR COAL - JP
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has stressed that it will not cancel its policy on the domestic market obligation (DMO) for coal, as the ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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