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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Thursday, 09 August 18
RIO TINTO COMPLETES SALE OF REMAINING COAL ASSETS
Rio Tinto has completed the sale of its remaining coal assets in Queensland, Australia, for $3.95 billion.
According to a noted post ...
Wednesday, 08 August 18
CHINA DEMANDS PREMIUM IRON ORE, COAL; MINERS MIXED IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
China’s stricter environmental regulations and structural changes in its steelmaking industry boosts ongoing demand for high-quality iron ore ...
Wednesday, 08 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
Singapore's shipyard business has evolved over the decades, from shipbuilding and repairs to rig building. It's now evolving again, to cate ...
Friday, 03 August 18
PHEW! ASIA, EUROPE HEATWAVE PUSHES AUSTRALIA COAL PRICES TO 6-YEAR HIGH: REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have hit fresh six-year highs as a heatwave across the northern hemisphere has triggered a spike in demand for coal- ...
Friday, 03 August 18
HBA HAS RISEN 28.41 PER CENT IN A YEAR TO BE AT THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE JANUARY 2012
COALspot.com: The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal has risen 28.41 per cent in a year to be at their highest levels since January 2012.&n ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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