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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Thursday, 16 August 18
COAL PRODUCTION AT 37.11 PERCENT OF FULL-YEAR TARGET - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesian coal production was recorded at 180 million tons on Wednesday, or 37.11 percent of the government’s 485 million target this year.
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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed ...
Tuesday, 14 August 18
THE CAPESIZE MARKET HAS SHOWN A TREMENDOUS COURSE DURING THE PAST 12 MONTHS - THOMAS CHASAPIS
The Capesize market has shown a tremendous course during the past 12 months, having quickly climbed out of the “hole that it had found itself ...
Monday, 13 August 18
A 50,200 DWT FIXED DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $10,000S - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Expectations of a further push in the market were largely unfulfilled last week as rates come under pressure in Asia as the North Atla ...
Friday, 10 August 18
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECLINE BY 1.8% IN 2019 BECAUSE COAL EXPORTS AND COAL CONSUMPTION ARE BOTH FORECAST TO DECREASE - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production will decline by 1.1% to 766 million short tons (MMst) in 2018 despite a 5.7% (6 MMst) increase in coal exports.
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- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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