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Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL OUTLOOK BULLISH DESPITE WEAK CHINESE IMPORT DATA - HEREN, ICIS
ICIS logoCoal prices may appreciate over the remainder of 2018 even despite recent data showing falling imports from the world’s largest producer and consumer, China.
 
The European-benchmark Rotterdam coal front year has recovered from a low of around $82.00/tonne in mid-November, reaching above $89.00/tonne on Thursday. Prices previously fell steeply, driven down by oil, a mild start to the winter, and Chinese import restrictions.
 
Authorities in Beijing wish to support domestic coal miners, but abandoned similar constraints last year when freezing temperatures led to a heating crisis in the north of the country.
 
As such, the temperature outlook in China is the key driver facing the coal market heading into the peak winter season. Online forecasters on Thursday indicated that mild weather is likely in week 51, but there is some cold-snap potential after.
 
Closer to home, low wind is bringing coal into the German power mix. ICIS analysts on Thursday forecast wind generation averaging just 12.5GW over the next nine days, compared to 19.8GW across December 2017.
 
With bullish carbon also supporting power prices, German clean dark spreads have widened to the point where most coal plants are firmly in the money next year. This is incentivising forward power hedging as generators lock in profit margins, a supportive factor for coal prices in Europe.
 
Momentum indicators signal that coal is in a short-term uptrend under technical analysis models. While the Rotterdam front year is overbought after six straight session-on-session gains, its 200-session moving average should support prices around $89.00/tonne. This may prevent a significant downward correction in coming sessions, enabling further gains after a consolidation period.
 
ICIS analysts have a bullish outlook for carbon, due to tightening auction volumes in December and next year. This would provide further upward pressure on clean dark spreads and by extension coal in Europe.


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Thursday, 16 August 18
COAL PRODUCTION AT 37.11 PERCENT OF FULL-YEAR TARGET - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesian coal production was recorded at 180 million tons on Wednesday, or 37.11 percent of the government’s 485 million target this year. ...


Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed ...


Tuesday, 14 August 18
THE CAPESIZE MARKET HAS SHOWN A TREMENDOUS COURSE DURING THE PAST 12 MONTHS - THOMAS CHASAPIS
The Capesize market has shown a tremendous course during the past 12 months, having quickly climbed out of the “hole that it had found itself ...


Monday, 13 August 18
A 50,200 DWT FIXED DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $10,000S - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize Expectations of a further push in the market were largely unfulfilled last week as rates come under pressure in Asia as the North Atla ...


Friday, 10 August 18
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECLINE BY 1.8% IN 2019 BECAUSE COAL EXPORTS AND COAL CONSUMPTION ARE BOTH FORECAST TO DECREASE - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production will decline by 1.1% to 766 million short tons (MMst) in 2018 despite a 5.7% (6 MMst) increase in coal exports. ...


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