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Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL OUTLOOK BULLISH DESPITE WEAK CHINESE IMPORT DATA - HEREN, ICIS
ICIS logoCoal prices may appreciate over the remainder of 2018 even despite recent data showing falling imports from the world’s largest producer and consumer, China.
 
The European-benchmark Rotterdam coal front year has recovered from a low of around $82.00/tonne in mid-November, reaching above $89.00/tonne on Thursday. Prices previously fell steeply, driven down by oil, a mild start to the winter, and Chinese import restrictions.
 
Authorities in Beijing wish to support domestic coal miners, but abandoned similar constraints last year when freezing temperatures led to a heating crisis in the north of the country.
 
As such, the temperature outlook in China is the key driver facing the coal market heading into the peak winter season. Online forecasters on Thursday indicated that mild weather is likely in week 51, but there is some cold-snap potential after.
 
Closer to home, low wind is bringing coal into the German power mix. ICIS analysts on Thursday forecast wind generation averaging just 12.5GW over the next nine days, compared to 19.8GW across December 2017.
 
With bullish carbon also supporting power prices, German clean dark spreads have widened to the point where most coal plants are firmly in the money next year. This is incentivising forward power hedging as generators lock in profit margins, a supportive factor for coal prices in Europe.
 
Momentum indicators signal that coal is in a short-term uptrend under technical analysis models. While the Rotterdam front year is overbought after six straight session-on-session gains, its 200-session moving average should support prices around $89.00/tonne. This may prevent a significant downward correction in coming sessions, enabling further gains after a consolidation period.
 
ICIS analysts have a bullish outlook for carbon, due to tightening auction volumes in December and next year. This would provide further upward pressure on clean dark spreads and by extension coal in Europe.


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Tuesday, 11 December 18
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Thursday, 06 December 18
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Thursday, 06 December 18
U.S. COAL CONSUMPTION IN 2018 EXPECTED TO BE THE LOWEST IN 39 YEARS - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal consumption in 2018 to fall to 691 million short tons (MMst), a 4% decline from 2017 and the lowest level since 1979. U ...


Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings say ...


Thursday, 06 December 18
CHINA REVISES MANAGEMENT RULES ON ESTABLISHMENT OF FULLY FOREIGN-OWNED SHIPPING BUSINESSES - XINHUA
Foreign shipping companies will find it easier to establish wholly-owned subsidiaries in China thanks to a revised regulation due to take effect on ...


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