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Tuesday, 11 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 A lot of discussions have been made as to the effects of the IMO 2020 regulation on OPEX levels, investment feasibility of scrubbers and the benefits of alternative fuel usage. Aside from all of these, there is another reading to this new regulation. New oil products (ultra-low sulphur fuel oil) as well as the much larger quantities of MGO that will be needed from the shipping industry will reshape trade patterns around the globe. The first effect could well be depicted in crude oil trade due to shifts in refinery utilization, said Yiannis Vamvakas, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping in Allied latest weekly research report.
Specifically, demand for light sweet crude oil will move upward as it will be required from the non-upgraded refineries, while it is possible to see a negative trend in the demand for heavy sour grades. The second part is the need for redistribution of the low-sulphur fuels, in order to properly cover the global bunkering markets.
Yiannis Vamvakas further noted that, a side-effect to this could well be the requirement for floating storage for both clean (building of inventories), as well as dirty products (storage of the excess heavy fuel oil produced). Demand for HSFO is projected to recover in the long-term, as scrubber-equipped ships will continue using it. However, given that the IMO expects around 3,800 vessels to be fitted with scrubbers by 2020, it looks as though these vessels will remain a relatively small percentage of the global fleet. Many refineries have proceeded with their investment plans, adding capacity in order to produce more middle distillates, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasting that an additional 7 million barrels per day will come into production by 2023.
However, Yiannis Vamvakas says, there are also several refineries that have not yet fully prepared for the IMO 2020 regulation, possible creating a shortfall of the required fuels in certain regions. All in all, the most modernized refineries with extensive vacuum resid processing capacity will benefit most from the new regulation, as they will be able to produce larger quantities of required fuels, gaining market share in the marine sector. Based on these facts, demand will increase in regions were the more modern refineries reside, modifying current trade routes. According to a Reuters survey, around 66% of 33 questioned refineries will continue produce HSFO in 2020, but 70% of these stated that they will reduce their output. A decline has already been reported in fuel oil inventories, depicting the fact that refineries have started to cut output in anticipation of the regulation. However, it’s worth mentioning that if output cuts prove to be bigger than the consumption fall, prices will see a significant upsurge. With regards to different geographical locations, most of the US refineries have been upgraded by the US shale boom, giving them a head start, but they are still dependent on heavy fuel imports, which is used for blending purposes. This means that further investments will be required for adding de-sulphurisation capacity.
In Europe, the report says, the coastal refineries are better prepared compared to their mainland peers, as their main oil source is crude from North and West Africa, regions with less sour oil. In Middle East and China, most of the refineries do not have the capacity of de-sulphurisation needed to produce the new low-sulphur fuels, making new investments necessary. In almost all cases a significant change is to take place in the shipping industry.
This change can be seen as a threat, an opportunity or as a combination of these two. The modification of crude oil/oil products trade flows should benefit owners and refineries that are flexible and adaptable enough for the new regulations, while it may be a significant threat for market participants that will choose to fall behind their competition Yiannis Vamvakas concluded in his latest report.
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Monday, 17 September 18
SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE WORLD FLEET WILL FIT SCRUBBERS - FORECASTS : METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE
In recent months, there have been numerous reports of a strong pick-up in demand for scrubbers. On 1 January 2020, however, the number of ships fit ...
Saturday, 15 September 18
POWERING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW EMISSION COAL TECHNOLOGIES - WCA
In its 5th Strategic Energy Plan this year (2018), the Japanese Cabinet recognised coal as an important energy resource, necessary for the country& ...
Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA COAL RUN WAS FIXED CLOSE TO $16000 ON ULTRA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Rates took a further drop in the beginning of the week, to later find a floor around mid-week reaching mid USD 7 level for c5 and just ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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