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Tuesday, 11 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 A lot of discussions have been made as to the effects of the IMO 2020 regulation on OPEX levels, investment feasibility of scrubbers and the benefits of alternative fuel usage. Aside from all of these, there is another reading to this new regulation. New oil products (ultra-low sulphur fuel oil) as well as the much larger quantities of MGO that will be needed from the shipping industry will reshape trade patterns around the globe. The first effect could well be depicted in crude oil trade due to shifts in refinery utilization, said Yiannis Vamvakas, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping in Allied latest weekly research report.
Specifically, demand for light sweet crude oil will move upward as it will be required from the non-upgraded refineries, while it is possible to see a negative trend in the demand for heavy sour grades. The second part is the need for redistribution of the low-sulphur fuels, in order to properly cover the global bunkering markets.
Yiannis Vamvakas further noted that, a side-effect to this could well be the requirement for floating storage for both clean (building of inventories), as well as dirty products (storage of the excess heavy fuel oil produced). Demand for HSFO is projected to recover in the long-term, as scrubber-equipped ships will continue using it. However, given that the IMO expects around 3,800 vessels to be fitted with scrubbers by 2020, it looks as though these vessels will remain a relatively small percentage of the global fleet. Many refineries have proceeded with their investment plans, adding capacity in order to produce more middle distillates, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasting that an additional 7 million barrels per day will come into production by 2023.
However, Yiannis Vamvakas says, there are also several refineries that have not yet fully prepared for the IMO 2020 regulation, possible creating a shortfall of the required fuels in certain regions. All in all, the most modernized refineries with extensive vacuum resid processing capacity will benefit most from the new regulation, as they will be able to produce larger quantities of required fuels, gaining market share in the marine sector. Based on these facts, demand will increase in regions were the more modern refineries reside, modifying current trade routes. According to a Reuters survey, around 66% of 33 questioned refineries will continue produce HSFO in 2020, but 70% of these stated that they will reduce their output. A decline has already been reported in fuel oil inventories, depicting the fact that refineries have started to cut output in anticipation of the regulation. However, it’s worth mentioning that if output cuts prove to be bigger than the consumption fall, prices will see a significant upsurge. With regards to different geographical locations, most of the US refineries have been upgraded by the US shale boom, giving them a head start, but they are still dependent on heavy fuel imports, which is used for blending purposes. This means that further investments will be required for adding de-sulphurisation capacity.
In Europe, the report says, the coastal refineries are better prepared compared to their mainland peers, as their main oil source is crude from North and West Africa, regions with less sour oil. In Middle East and China, most of the refineries do not have the capacity of de-sulphurisation needed to produce the new low-sulphur fuels, making new investments necessary. In almost all cases a significant change is to take place in the shipping industry.
This change can be seen as a threat, an opportunity or as a combination of these two. The modification of crude oil/oil products trade flows should benefit owners and refineries that are flexible and adaptable enough for the new regulations, while it may be a significant threat for market participants that will choose to fall behind their competition Yiannis Vamvakas concluded in his latest report.
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Tuesday, 11 December 18
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 10.849 MMT OF COAL IN NOVEMBER DOWN 23.44 PERCENT MOM
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading port and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped A$ 1,574.8 mil ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
IN THE EAST, BIGGER SUPRA WAS FIXED CA US$ 10K FOR INDO-CHINA COAL ROUND - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There is cautious optimism for the Capes, with healthier volumes and improving rates in the Pacific. West Australia round is gradually ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
U.S. COAL CONSUMPTION IN 2018 EXPECTED TO BE THE LOWEST IN 39 YEARS - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal consumption in 2018 to fall to 691 million short tons (MMst), a 4% decline from 2017 and the lowest level since 1979. U ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings say ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
CHINA REVISES MANAGEMENT RULES ON ESTABLISHMENT OF FULLY FOREIGN-OWNED SHIPPING BUSINESSES - XINHUA
Foreign shipping companies will find it easier to establish wholly-owned subsidiaries in China thanks to a revised regulation due to take effect on ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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