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Tuesday, 11 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 A lot of discussions have been made as to the effects of the IMO 2020 regulation on OPEX levels, investment feasibility of scrubbers and the benefits of alternative fuel usage. Aside from all of these, there is another reading to this new regulation. New oil products (ultra-low sulphur fuel oil) as well as the much larger quantities of MGO that will be needed from the shipping industry will reshape trade patterns around the globe. The first effect could well be depicted in crude oil trade due to shifts in refinery utilization, said Yiannis Vamvakas, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping in Allied latest weekly research report.
Specifically, demand for light sweet crude oil will move upward as it will be required from the non-upgraded refineries, while it is possible to see a negative trend in the demand for heavy sour grades. The second part is the need for redistribution of the low-sulphur fuels, in order to properly cover the global bunkering markets.
Yiannis Vamvakas further noted that, a side-effect to this could well be the requirement for floating storage for both clean (building of inventories), as well as dirty products (storage of the excess heavy fuel oil produced). Demand for HSFO is projected to recover in the long-term, as scrubber-equipped ships will continue using it. However, given that the IMO expects around 3,800 vessels to be fitted with scrubbers by 2020, it looks as though these vessels will remain a relatively small percentage of the global fleet. Many refineries have proceeded with their investment plans, adding capacity in order to produce more middle distillates, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasting that an additional 7 million barrels per day will come into production by 2023.
However, Yiannis Vamvakas says, there are also several refineries that have not yet fully prepared for the IMO 2020 regulation, possible creating a shortfall of the required fuels in certain regions. All in all, the most modernized refineries with extensive vacuum resid processing capacity will benefit most from the new regulation, as they will be able to produce larger quantities of required fuels, gaining market share in the marine sector. Based on these facts, demand will increase in regions were the more modern refineries reside, modifying current trade routes. According to a Reuters survey, around 66% of 33 questioned refineries will continue produce HSFO in 2020, but 70% of these stated that they will reduce their output. A decline has already been reported in fuel oil inventories, depicting the fact that refineries have started to cut output in anticipation of the regulation. However, it’s worth mentioning that if output cuts prove to be bigger than the consumption fall, prices will see a significant upsurge. With regards to different geographical locations, most of the US refineries have been upgraded by the US shale boom, giving them a head start, but they are still dependent on heavy fuel imports, which is used for blending purposes. This means that further investments will be required for adding de-sulphurisation capacity.
In Europe, the report says, the coastal refineries are better prepared compared to their mainland peers, as their main oil source is crude from North and West Africa, regions with less sour oil. In Middle East and China, most of the refineries do not have the capacity of de-sulphurisation needed to produce the new low-sulphur fuels, making new investments necessary. In almost all cases a significant change is to take place in the shipping industry.
This change can be seen as a threat, an opportunity or as a combination of these two. The modification of crude oil/oil products trade flows should benefit owners and refineries that are flexible and adaptable enough for the new regulations, while it may be a significant threat for market participants that will choose to fall behind their competition Yiannis Vamvakas concluded in his latest report.
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Monday, 01 April 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL AT RISK FROM CHINA MOVE, WARNS GOVERNMENT REPORT - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
A new government report warns China’s restrictions on coal imports is the number one risk for Australian coal this year and could lead to a s ...
Saturday, 30 March 19
KOEN INVITES BIDS FOR 450,000 TONS OF (SUB) BITUMINOUS COAL FOR H1 AND JUNE 2019
South Korea state-owned utility KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) issued a tender for total 450,000 MT of min. 4300, 3500 and 5600 NCV ...
Wednesday, 27 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Contrary to the December 2018 forecasts but in line with the expectations of the dry bulk market, the first quarter of the year closed negatively. ...
Saturday, 23 March 19
IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE HANDY SIZE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The big ships endured heavy losses last week extinguishing any hopes from the recent minor rally. Negative sentiment gained pace throu ...
Friday, 22 March 19
CHINA MARKET: COAL OUT IN THE COLD - BUSINESS RECORDER
Though China maintains there is no ban, China-bound Australian coal shipments are looking for a new home. For the past few months, coal cargoes are ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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