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Tuesday, 27 November 18
PANAMAX AND SUPRAMAX INDICES WITNESSED A DECLINE OF JUST BELOW 14% IN THEIR MEAN ON A MONTH-ON-MONTH COMPARISON - ALLIED SHIPPING
 A month of sharp corrections and great asymmetries for the dry bulk sector, with the overall overview of the market shipping rapidly from a state of extreme bullishness to bearish in no time at all. Not long-ago, statements like robust sentiment, modest order-book, sustainable fleet development, robust global economic growth and seaborne trade were some of the favorites topics discussed by most optimists in the market, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping in his latest report.
But now, given that the scene has changed completely, and the upward momentum has faded away, what can we expect from the blurry picture presented in front of us?
According to Thomas Chasapis, at the beginning of September, a mere breath before the start of the final quarter of 2018, the exuberance was become apparent in the paper market, given that contracts reached levels of even above US$ 26,000/day for the average of the BCI-5TC for 4th quarter period. At that time, and given that the previous year, for the same time frame, the actual market managed an average figure in the region of US$ 22,700/day and the market was already on an upward path throughout 2018, the level being discussed seemed rather fair to most.
He further noted that, things were already turning sour however in October, with earnings averaging out at US$ 18,600/day and it quickly becoming obvious that the Capesize segment wasn’t going to carry out its promise as originally thought. But things didn’t stop there, and from the start of this month the overall segment was on a sharp downward spiral, reaching even at levels that brought back memories of the collapse in the dry bulk sector of 2016. So, to the very least we can say that the market is in a “weird” state. The FFA market is now in a state of turmoil, showing steep corrections in respect to forward returns, even for very forward contracts. On a month-on-month basis, volatility for Capes has skyrocketed by almost 184% (using the BCI benchmark index), breaking a long period of convergence towards a more stable state.
Yet what must be stated is that it would be prudent not to rush back into an overly bearish tone, on the back of just recent trends in the dry bulk freight market. It is important to mention that other segments haven’t shows this kind of softening in their average figures. Both the Panamax and Supramax indices witnessed a decline of just below 14% in their mean on a month-on-month comparison. So, given the influential attribute of the Capesize to the overall sector, the impressive resistance seen in the smaller sub-segments can be translated in two different ways, either that there are strong fundamentals able to bear periodical negative shifts (i.e. minor bulk commodities are holding better), or we are speaking of an isolated and over exaggerated incident and the market will recover back to normality fairly quickly. For the time being the market is once again covered in shrouds of uncertainty, with most interested parties having already altered towards a more conservative attitude.
All-in-all, given that we are in a strong seasonal point in the year, we would expect that a swift recovery could take place, with the overall market, although, most probably finishing the year at mediocre levels given the extent of the downturn noticed these past weeks, Research Analyst of Allied shipping concluded.
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Wednesday, 24 October 18
CHINESE POWER PLANT STOCKPILES AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2015 - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
Chinese power plant coal stockpiles have climbed to approximately 83.3 million tons as of the middle of this month, said Jeffrey Landsberg in his e ...
Tuesday, 23 October 18
WILL THE U.S. COAL DECLINE CONTINUE? - FORBES
What’s Trump’s new coal proposal?
Adding to its controversial plan to leverage federal authority to keep retiring baselo ...
Monday, 22 October 18
CONTINUED HIGH LNG PRICES; TRADE WAR IMPACT LIMITED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects sustained high spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) and contract prices over the next two quarters on limited investment in LNG e ...
Monday, 22 October 18
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
The oil market in the winter season is generally characterized by demand for diesel, particularly in the northern hemisphere, leaving product marke ...
Saturday, 20 October 18
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW A LARGE VOLUME OF FIXING, WITH INDONESIA AGAIN THE DRIVING FORCE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a shaky start, with a Coaltrans taking participants out of the market early on and with rates slippi ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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