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Tuesday, 27 November 18
PANAMAX AND SUPRAMAX INDICES WITNESSED A DECLINE OF JUST BELOW 14% IN THEIR MEAN ON A MONTH-ON-MONTH COMPARISON - ALLIED SHIPPING
 A month of sharp corrections and great asymmetries for the dry bulk sector, with the overall overview of the market shipping rapidly from a state of extreme bullishness to bearish in no time at all. Not long-ago, statements like robust sentiment, modest order-book, sustainable fleet development, robust global economic growth and seaborne trade were some of the favorites topics discussed by most optimists in the market, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping in his latest report.
But now, given that the scene has changed completely, and the upward momentum has faded away, what can we expect from the blurry picture presented in front of us?
According to Thomas Chasapis, at the beginning of September, a mere breath before the start of the final quarter of 2018, the exuberance was become apparent in the paper market, given that contracts reached levels of even above US$ 26,000/day for the average of the BCI-5TC for 4th quarter period. At that time, and given that the previous year, for the same time frame, the actual market managed an average figure in the region of US$ 22,700/day and the market was already on an upward path throughout 2018, the level being discussed seemed rather fair to most.
He further noted that, things were already turning sour however in October, with earnings averaging out at US$ 18,600/day and it quickly becoming obvious that the Capesize segment wasn’t going to carry out its promise as originally thought. But things didn’t stop there, and from the start of this month the overall segment was on a sharp downward spiral, reaching even at levels that brought back memories of the collapse in the dry bulk sector of 2016. So, to the very least we can say that the market is in a “weird” state. The FFA market is now in a state of turmoil, showing steep corrections in respect to forward returns, even for very forward contracts. On a month-on-month basis, volatility for Capes has skyrocketed by almost 184% (using the BCI benchmark index), breaking a long period of convergence towards a more stable state.
Yet what must be stated is that it would be prudent not to rush back into an overly bearish tone, on the back of just recent trends in the dry bulk freight market. It is important to mention that other segments haven’t shows this kind of softening in their average figures. Both the Panamax and Supramax indices witnessed a decline of just below 14% in their mean on a month-on-month comparison. So, given the influential attribute of the Capesize to the overall sector, the impressive resistance seen in the smaller sub-segments can be translated in two different ways, either that there are strong fundamentals able to bear periodical negative shifts (i.e. minor bulk commodities are holding better), or we are speaking of an isolated and over exaggerated incident and the market will recover back to normality fairly quickly. For the time being the market is once again covered in shrouds of uncertainty, with most interested parties having already altered towards a more conservative attitude.
All-in-all, given that we are in a strong seasonal point in the year, we would expect that a swift recovery could take place, with the overall market, although, most probably finishing the year at mediocre levels given the extent of the downturn noticed these past weeks, Research Analyst of Allied shipping concluded.
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Tuesday, 11 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
A lot of discussions have been made as to the effects of the IMO 2020 regulation on OPEX levels, investment feasibility of& ...
Tuesday, 11 December 18
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 10.849 MMT OF COAL IN NOVEMBER DOWN 23.44 PERCENT MOM
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading port and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped A$ 1,574.8 mil ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
IN THE EAST, BIGGER SUPRA WAS FIXED CA US$ 10K FOR INDO-CHINA COAL ROUND - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There is cautious optimism for the Capes, with healthier volumes and improving rates in the Pacific. West Australia round is gradually ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
U.S. COAL CONSUMPTION IN 2018 EXPECTED TO BE THE LOWEST IN 39 YEARS - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal consumption in 2018 to fall to 691 million short tons (MMst), a 4% decline from 2017 and the lowest level since 1979. U ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings say ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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