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Tuesday, 27 November 18
PANAMAX AND SUPRAMAX INDICES WITNESSED A DECLINE OF JUST BELOW 14% IN THEIR MEAN ON A MONTH-ON-MONTH COMPARISON - ALLIED SHIPPING
 A month of sharp corrections and great asymmetries for the dry bulk sector, with the overall overview of the market shipping rapidly from a state of extreme bullishness to bearish in no time at all. Not long-ago, statements like robust sentiment, modest order-book, sustainable fleet development, robust global economic growth and seaborne trade were some of the favorites topics discussed by most optimists in the market, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping in his latest report.
But now, given that the scene has changed completely, and the upward momentum has faded away, what can we expect from the blurry picture presented in front of us?
According to Thomas Chasapis, at the beginning of September, a mere breath before the start of the final quarter of 2018, the exuberance was become apparent in the paper market, given that contracts reached levels of even above US$ 26,000/day for the average of the BCI-5TC for 4th quarter period. At that time, and given that the previous year, for the same time frame, the actual market managed an average figure in the region of US$ 22,700/day and the market was already on an upward path throughout 2018, the level being discussed seemed rather fair to most.
He further noted that, things were already turning sour however in October, with earnings averaging out at US$ 18,600/day and it quickly becoming obvious that the Capesize segment wasn’t going to carry out its promise as originally thought. But things didn’t stop there, and from the start of this month the overall segment was on a sharp downward spiral, reaching even at levels that brought back memories of the collapse in the dry bulk sector of 2016. So, to the very least we can say that the market is in a “weird” state. The FFA market is now in a state of turmoil, showing steep corrections in respect to forward returns, even for very forward contracts. On a month-on-month basis, volatility for Capes has skyrocketed by almost 184% (using the BCI benchmark index), breaking a long period of convergence towards a more stable state.
Yet what must be stated is that it would be prudent not to rush back into an overly bearish tone, on the back of just recent trends in the dry bulk freight market. It is important to mention that other segments haven’t shows this kind of softening in their average figures. Both the Panamax and Supramax indices witnessed a decline of just below 14% in their mean on a month-on-month comparison. So, given the influential attribute of the Capesize to the overall sector, the impressive resistance seen in the smaller sub-segments can be translated in two different ways, either that there are strong fundamentals able to bear periodical negative shifts (i.e. minor bulk commodities are holding better), or we are speaking of an isolated and over exaggerated incident and the market will recover back to normality fairly quickly. For the time being the market is once again covered in shrouds of uncertainty, with most interested parties having already altered towards a more conservative attitude.
All-in-all, given that we are in a strong seasonal point in the year, we would expect that a swift recovery could take place, with the overall market, although, most probably finishing the year at mediocre levels given the extent of the downturn noticed these past weeks, Research Analyst of Allied shipping concluded.
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Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND SET TO REMAIN STABLE THROUGH 2023, DESPITE HEADWINDS - IEA
While global coal demand looks set to rise for the second year in a row in 2018, it is forecast to remain stable over the next five years, as decli ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL SHIPPING SCOUTS FOR FUTURE GROWTH - PETER SAND, BIMCO
Where do we go to find economic growth that spurs shipping demand in the next five years? According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), we sh ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As another year is coming to an end, it is interesting to look at the main shipping markets and how these performed compared to 2017.
&nb ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL DEMAND WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH 2023, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY SAYS - TOM DICHRISTOPHER, CNBC
Coal consumption is on the rise but will remain roughly stable over the next five years, the International Energy Agency forecasts.
...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taki ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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