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Friday, 23 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY'S POTENTIAL ACQUISITION OF STANMORE CREDIT POSITIVE - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch RatingGolden Energy and Resources Limited's (GEAR, B+/Positive) potential acquisition of Stanmore Coal will help the company diversify its coal operations beyond Indonesia, Fitch Ratings says. GEAR's Positive Outlook reflects our expectation that the company, primarily through its 67%-owned coal-mining subsidiary, PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk (GEMS, B+/Positive), will be able to successfully continue its production ramp-up to a level commensurate with the profile of a 'BB-' rated entity over the next 12-18 months. 
 
The completion of the potential acquisition, depending on the effective ownership GEAR is able to secure, can potentially hasten the company's improvement in scale and diversity and thereby increase the likelihood of an upgrade in GEAR's ratings. Fitch is likely to upgrade GEAR's ratings if it is able to maintain a production volume of more than 30 million tonnes (mt) per annum, which we expect the company to achieve by 2020. Production increased to about 16 mt in 9M18 from about 10 mt in 9M17. 
 
GEAR signed an agreement on 16 November 2018 to purchase 19.9% of the shares of Australia-based Stanmore from one of its shareholders for USD35 million. GEAR has also made a takeover bid for the remainder of Stanmore shares through a 51%-owned subsidiary, Golden Investments. The transaction will be restructured such that Golden Investments will hold 100% of Stanmore eventually, which will result in GEAR effectively owning 51% of the Australian company. GEAR expects a net cash outflow of around USD90 million for its effective share of the acquisition. It plans to fund the acquisition primarily from bond issue proceeds, which it raised in February 2018.
 
Stanmore expects to produce about 2 mt of coal in the financial year ending June 2019 (FY19), most of which is coking coal from its Australian mines, which generates considerably higher cash profits per tonne of coal than GEAR's current production. Stanmore generated EBITDA of USD27 per tonne in the 12 months to June 2018 compared with GEMS's USD11 per tonne. GEAR reported proportionate consolidated EBITDA of USD120 million during the 12 months ended June 2018 while Stanmore expects EBITDA to increase from USD35 million in FY18 to USD94 million-108 million in FYE19. 
 
We expect GEAR's financial profile to continue to remain strong even after the proposed acquisition, with net debt to EBITDA remaining at or below 1x (9M18: 0.6x). In our view, Stanmore's net cash position, steady earnings and absence of any large capex in the near term will support GEAR's financial profile after the acquisition. However, plans for increasing Stanmore's feeble proved (1P) reserves (end-June 2018: 9.1 mt) may have an impact on GEAR's rating over the medium term although the company's 2P reserves (proved and probable) remain adequate at 115.1 mt. 


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