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Tuesday, 20 November 18
FREIGHT RATES IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS - YIANNIS VAMVAKAS
 Current geopolitical developments between Iran and the US, which have led the latter to re-impose its sanctions, have significantly affected oil prices over the past couple of months. With Iranian oil out of the picture for many of the main importers, Saudi Arabia and the rest of the OPEC countries have already started to gradually increase their output to cover the demand gap, said Yiannis Vamvakas, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping.
However, he further noted that, these plans were disrupted by a footnote in these most recent sanctions, which stated that several countries (including China, India and Japan) are allowed to continue importing oil from Teheran for a limited time period, but without any specified limitation in the imported volume. It is worth mentioning that China is the biggest importer of Iranian oil. This would essentially leave Iranian production levels to approximately 1.1 million bpd in November and to even higher figures in December. In addition to this, competition from other countries has intensified. Russia has raised its output during the previous months (11.41 million bpd in October), and with further growth being planned for 2019. At the same time, US production is expected to reach to 10.7 million bpd by the end of the year and is set to increase by another 250,000 bpd in 2019. As a result, Brent oil prices, which had reached a four-year high of $86 a barrel in October based on tight supply concerns, have slid back down to $67 now, losing around 21% within a month.
Allied weekly research report further said, with a supply glut on the horizon, Saudi Arabia is now considering proceeding, together with the rest of OPEC members, to an output cut of about 1.4 million bpd, even though Washington asserts that the provision of waivers is a temporary measure. Another interesting aspect of the Iranian sanctions is the possible decision by Teheran to maintain production numbers at high levels, even after the waiver program expires, and use some of the domestic VLCC fleet as floating storage. With a considerable portion of the Iranian tanker fleet out of the picture, market participants can expect a positive impact on the demand for the rest of global tanker fleet despite reports that there are already around 14 inactive Iranian VLCCs.
Moreover, Yiannis Vamvakas said, it is worth mentioning that the average haul should increase, adding further support for freight rates. China will turn its focus to other oil sources with West Africa and Brazil being most likely candidates, increasing the average ton-mile demand significantly. Other Far Eastern countries that are currently under the US waiver program will also change their import business partners with the US being an additional option. However, here we should mention that despite the continuing dredging that takes place in the US Gulf ports, fully loaded VLCCs are still unable to call the majority of ports there.
Freight rates in the crude oil market have already picked up over the past couple of weeks, with the Iranian sanctions being an important factor. Beyond this however, with the northern hemisphere enter into its winter period, the seasonal increases in oil demand that typically take place have also played a significant role in this most recent rally. The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) announced in their latest monthly report that its forecast for global demand growth for 2018 and 2019 have remained unchanged from last month. With some volatility being anticipated due to uncertainty in the oil market, market participants are expecting the positive sentiment to continue for the rest of 2018, as well as the first quarter of 2019. However, with the rate of deliveries expected to be seen within 2019 this current upward momentum trend may well end up being curbed significantly in the long run.
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Tuesday, 02 October 18
PANAMAX: A FURTHER RISE ACROSS ALL MAIN ROUTES THIS WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize
Finally an upward recovery was in sight in the spot market the past few days, after the prolonged negative pressure noted the weeks pr ...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
THE PRICE OF OIL CONTINUES ITS CLIMB AMIDST A SERIES OF CONCERNS REGARDING SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It has been a busy week for oil traders as the price of oil continues its climb amidst a series of concerns regarding supply constraints.
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Tuesday, 02 October 18
INDONESIA GETS READY TO MEET INCREASED COAL DEMAND FROM CHINA, FREIGHT TO RESPOND - MIKAL BOE
Indonesian coal suppliers have increased their domestic coal production target by 4.5 percent from a previous 485 million tonnes to a massive 507 m ...
Monday, 01 October 18
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000 DWT FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SURABAYA TRIP WITH REDELIVERY TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $13,500 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A stop-start market for the big ships with many expectations and few fulfilled. Holidays curtailed trading early in the week, but the ...
Monday, 01 October 18
A NO-DEAL BREXIT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE CONSEQUENCES FOR IMPORTERS AND EXPORTERS - KATE JONES, THE BALTIC BRIEFING
If you live in the UK, you might be finding it difficult to get away from the Brexit debate. “Hard Brexit”, “soft Brexit”, ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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